ISA Ukraine Conflict Update - 24th of March 2022

Daily Summary

The war in Ukraine entered its second month, with Russia no closer to victory than it was in the first days of the conflict. For Russia, the losses of both soldiers and equipment have been far greater than they estimated prior to the conflict, and this has led to shortages of both soldiers and weapons for the invaders. By some estimates, as many as 10,000 Russian soldiers may have already been killed.

Most of Russia’s offensive activities remain around the southern port city of Mariupol, where street-by-street fighting continues throughout that city. While Russian forces have gained a little more ground in Mariupol, they have done so at great cost, while devastating much of that city.

Around the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, Russian forces continue to go over to the defensive. This includes entrenching their positions to the west and the east of the city, while also laying minefields in many areas. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces were able to launch limited counterattacks to the west of Kyiv, and they appear to have gained a little ground along this area of the front.

In recent days, there has been fighting in areas along the front line in eastern Ukraine that are linked to the breakaway regions of Luhansk and Donetsk. It appears that Russian forces based in those regions carried out limited offensive operations there, only to be repulsed by Ukrainian forces.

Key Developments

NATO Meeting: The leaders of the member states of NATO are meeting this week in Brussels, with a number of NATO members already pledging to send more weapons and other equipment to Ukraine. This is likely to further raise tensions between NATO and Russia.

Russian Limitations: With Russian forces remaining on the offensive around Mariupol, but going over to the defensive around Kyiv and Kharkiv, it appears that Russia’s armed forces are only able to mount large-scale offensive operations along one key sector of the front at a time.