ISA Ukraine Conflict Update - 14th of March 2022

Daily Summary

Russian armed forces continued to struggle to gain ground along most areas of the front line in their war with Ukraine, but have increased their use of artillery and rocket attacks on Ukrainian cities and military bases. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s effective use of hit-and-run defenses, drones and anti-aircraft missiles has proven to be a major problem for Russia’s armed forces.

On the northern front, Russia’s efforts to encircle Kyiv have made only slow progress in recent days, having met stiff resistance both to the east and the west of the Ukrainian capital. At this point, it still appears that the focus of the Russian invasion remains on the capturing of Kyiv, at whatever cost.

On the eastern front, Russian forces have made little progress on most areas of the front, and Ukrainian forces have continued to launch counterattacks around Kharkiv. Russia’s only gains have come on the southern end of this front, where Russia is seeking to link the front with the breakaway region of Luhansk.

After making significant territorial gains in southern Ukraine, Russian forces have become bogged down along much of this front. Russia’s main efforts here remain on subduing the pocket around the city of Mariupol. Meanwhile, Russian efforts to drive westwards to areas north of Odesa appear to have stalled, although it is expected that Russia will attempt further offensives in this region.

What to Watch in the Coming Days

Seeking China’s Help: It was apparent from the beginning the Russia’s economy would become dependent upon China for exports and foreign investment. However, Russia’s apparent request for military aid so early in the conflict suggests that Russia also needs strategic support from Beijing.

Russian Options: As they become bogged down in many areas, Russia’s armed forces are likely to use more brutal tactics to subdue Ukrainian forces around key strongholds such as Kyiv, Kharkiv and Mariupol. They are fears that these tactics could include the use of chemical weapons.