Will Borders Continue to Close?

The recent moves by new United States President Donald Trump to move ahead with the construction of a wall along the US’ border with Mexico, and his recent order to ban all travellers from seven largely-Muslim countries from entering the United States are the most dramatic developments in what has been a trend towards the increasing closure of wealthier countries’ borders to people from poorer areas of the world.  As recent elections have shown, there moves enjoy a good deal of support within the countries enacting these closures, and trends suggest that more and more voters will back such moves in the future.  Meanwhile, population growth in many poorer areas of the world, particularly in Africa and the Middle East, will remain high, while conflicts will continue to destabilize many of these high-population-growth regions.  This will result in the continued large-scale movement of people, similar to the recent surge of migrants attempting to reach Europe.  The question is, will the world’s wealthier countries close their borders to these moving populations or will they accept what would be a major shift in the make-up of their populations.

Europe’s recent migration crisis has been the catalyst for the moves by many countries in the West and elsewhere to further tighten their border controls and restrict the movement of people into these countries.  Over the past two years, more than 1.3 million people, mostly from the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia, have crossed the Mediterranean Sea into southern Europe, in the hope of reaching the wealthier countries of northern Europe.  Initially, some European countries, most notably Germany and Sweden, welcomed huge numbers of migrants and allowed them to remain in those countries.  However, many of these countries have since moved to restrict the numbers of migrants that they would accept, as fears of crime and terrorism have risen in those countries, fuelling support for far-right political parties opposed to accepting any migrants.

It was this crisis in Europe, coupled with the loss of manufacturing jobs in the United States, that prompted Donald Trump to make his promise to build a wall along the border with Mexico and to restrict Muslim immigration in the US as a centerpiece of his successful campaign to win the US presidency.  Repeatedly, President Trump warned that the United States would face a crisis similar to the one the befell Europe if it allowed large-scale migration from the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa, even if the number of migrants and refugees reaching the US from these regions was dwarfed by those that arrived in Europe in recent years.  This prompted his move to ban the travel to the US of people from seven largely Islamic countries on the grounds that they could pose a security threat to the US.  As for criticisms of Mexico, this was largely on economic grounds, as he blamed Mexico (and Mexican migrants to the US) for reducing the number of manufacturing jobs in the US, thus his call for a wall along the Mexican border and tariffs on Mexican imports into the United States.

This trend of increasingly closed borders has not been confined to the wealthier countries of the West.  For example, most of the wealthier countries of the Asia-Pacific region have also taken major steps to restrict immigration from the poorer countries to their east.  Japan, the region’s largest wealthy country, accepts almost no immigration and has done so for nearly its entire history.  Australia has also moved to restrict migration from poorer Asian and African countries and has set up controversial offshore processing centers to prevent migrants from reaching Australian territory.  The Gulf States have also moved to restrict immigration in recent years as their economies have slowed and fears of terrorism and political unrest have risen.  In fact, wealthier countries all around the world are taking greater steps to restrict immigration.

While the world’s wealthier countries are likely to continue to take more steps to restrict immigration due to increasing support for such restrictions among their voting populations, external migration pressures are likely to continue to grow.  For example, population growth in the poorer countries of the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia will remain the highest in the world; stretching these countries already thin resources.  Likewise, conflict risk will remain dangerously high in these areas of the world, driving large numbers of people from their homes in search of stability and safety.  Nevertheless, these shifting populations are likely to find that the borders of the wealthier countries they hope to reach are increasingly closed to them.  This will result in either a collapse of these borders, or a massive destabilization of the regions from where this migration is originating.  What is certain is that the world’s migration crisis is far from over and that this issue will continue to shape the political landscape around the world for years to come.