The Kashmir Flashpoint
As the world focuses on conflicts elsewhere in places such as Syria, Iraq and Ukraine, it is easy to forget that the disputed region of Kashmir is the only place in the world where two nuclear-armed countries are engaged in periodic clashes along a much-disputed border. However, the fighting that has broken out between Indian and Pakistani soldiers along the dispute Line of Control in Kashmir this week is a reminder of just how tense the situation there is. Furthermore, domestic factors inside India and Pakistan could lead to a serious escalation in tensions between the two long-time rivals that could spiral out of control and implicate a number of other world powers.
In recent days, clashes between Indian and Pakistani forces based along the disputed border in the divided region of Kashmir have resulted in a number of civilian deaths on both sides of the border. India claims that Pakistani armed forces began shelling dozens of border posts and villages on the Indian-controlled side of the border earlier this week. Meanwhile, Pakistan has claimed that Indian soldiers fired into Pakistani-controlled Kashmir, killing a number of civilians there. These clashes have added to the tensions between India and Pakistan that were raised when India cancelled planned talks with Pakistan in August after it accused the Pakistani government of interfering in India’s internal affairs.
When Narendra Modi and his BJP party swept to power in this year’s national elections in India, there were fears that the Hindu-nationalist elements of his new government would seek to raise tensions with Pakistan. Moreover, Prime Minister Modi had spoken often in the past of India’s need to take a much firmer line with Pakistan. However, it appeared that Prime Minister Modi was attempting to establish a more positive relationship with his Pakistani counterpart, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, when he invited him to his inauguration. Despite these efforts on a personal level, little progress was made and it is clear that relations between the Indian and Pakistani governments have worsened in recent months.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is also finding it difficult to achieve his goal of improving relations with India. First, his government has been severely weakened by months of anti-government protests led by former cricket star Imran Khan. This has strengthened the hand of Pakistan’s armed forces, and it is the leadership of the armed forces that has strenuously opposed any efforts by the government to improve relations with India. Meanwhile, Pakistan continues to be home to a host of hardline Islamist groups that claim to support India’s large Muslim minority. The presence of these groups inside Pakistan is a major issue for the Indian government and until Pakistan can marginalize these groups, relations between the two countries will remain tense. Finally, Pakistan claims control of all of the largely Muslim-populated region of Kashmir and it is there that the armed forces of two sides come face-to-face.
The impact of a potential conflict between India and Pakistan cannot be underestimated. The previous wars between the two countries were affairs that were largely contained within the region. However, a conflict today would have the potential to draw in outside powers and to spread well beyond the borders of India and Pakistan. For example, China remains Pakistan’s leading ally in Asia and it too has major border disputes with India. Meanwhile, India has been strengthening its political, economic and defense ties with many countries, including Japan, while slowly embracing closer defense ties with the United States. Finally, the fact that both countries are nuclear powers threatens to turn a future conflict between India and Pakistan into a nuclear war, particularly as India’s advantages over Pakistan in terms of conventional warfare capacity grow steadily year-after-year.