What the Nuclear Deal With Iran Really Means

After marathon negotiations in Switzerland, Iran reached a deal with six international powers (the United States, China, Russia, Germany, Britain and France) on its controversial nuclear program.  While this deal is far from a comprehensive long-term agreement, it is a major step towards the creation of a system to verify and constrain Iran’s vast nuclear program and should thus be welcomed by the international community.  However, there are a number of major challenges that will make the implementation of this deal, and the reaching of a comprehensive long-term deal by the upcoming June 2015 deadline, a very difficult task.

After years of difficult negotiations, the seven countries that took part were able to hammer out a framework agreement that is designed to pave the way for a comprehensive deal to be reached by the middle of this year.  Moreover, most of the countries involved appear to be largely satisfied with the terms of the deal.  For Iran, this deal will allow it to maintain a civilian nuclear program, although one that is subject to strict controls and limits over the next ten years.  In addition, international sanctions on Iran will be gradually lifted in the coming months, bringing much needed relief to the battered Iranian economy.  For the international community (or at least the six countries that negotiated with Iran), this deal will force Iran to dramatically reduce its stockpiles of enriched uranium, to cut its centrifuges by more than two-thirds and to agree to comprehensive monitoring of its nuclear facilities.  Altogether, all sides can be satisfied that their main objectives were met in this framework agreement.

While those countries that took part in these negotiations appear to be satisfied with the terms of the deal, many other countries are profoundly disturbed by this agreement.  For example, Saudi Arabia and many of its Sunni allies in the Middle East have expressed their concerns over the terms of the deal and are worried that the restrictions placed on Iran are not enough to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons.  Moreover, Saudi Arabia is fearful that the lifting of economic sanctions will embolden Iran and lead to it further expanding its influence in the Middle East.  As a Saudi-led coalition is fighting against the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, the sectarian divide between Saudi-led Sunni forces and Iranian-led Shiite forces in the Middle East is more dangerous than ever.  Meanwhile, Israel has been the most vocal opponent of this deal and has called on the international community to force Iran to recognize Israel as part of the deal, a call that has been rejected by the United States. 

So far, Iran and the bulk of the international community have largely welcomed the deal.  However, there are a number of factors that could derail the framework agreement and make reaching a comprehensive deal on Iran’s nuclear program much more difficult.  First, Iran has interpreted this deal in a much different manner than the United States or the European Union.  This is evidenced by the fact that Iran claims that the deal requires economic sanctions in place against Iran to be lifted immediately, whereas the US and the EU plan to lift sanctions gradually over the next few months.  Second, hardliners in Iran have spoken out against the terms of the deal and they retain a great deal of influence inside Iran and could compromise President Hassan Rouhani’s ability to implement the terms of the agreement.  Finally, many Republicans in the United States Congress have spoken of their deep reservations regarding the deal and could limit President Barack Obama’s authority to approve and implement a comprehensive agreement with Iran.

Despite the reservations regarding this deal and its ability to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, the international community should welcome this agreement as long as Iran abides by the terms of the deal.  Without this deal, Iran would be free to continue its clandestine nuclear operations and this would have certainly led to Iran one day being able to develop its own nuclear weapons, as countries such as Pakistan and North Korea were able to do in the past.  Now, strict limits will be placed on Iran’s nuclear program and a thorough verification system will be put in place.  Meanwhile, this deal will help to re-establish links between Iran and the West at a time when Iran can play a key role in the battle against extremist groups across the region.  While Iran is widely blamed for its role in the unrest in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, a new relationship with the United States and its allies might convince Tehran to push for peace in the Middle East at a time when much of the region has descended into anarchy.