Yemen - The Middle East's Most Dangerous Conflict

Yemen has struggled to achieve any sort of stability in recent decades, but the current situation in Yemen is worse than it has ever been and the country can easily be described as a failed state.  So far, the world has taken little notice of the conflict in Yemen and as a result, this conflict has failed to generate the response from the international community that the war with the Islamic State has done in Syria and Iraq.  However, that may be about to change as the political and military situation in Yemen has changed dramatically in recent weeks.  These changes have been so swift that they could result in one or more of the region’s leading powers directly intervening in the conflict, making this the most dangerous flashpoint in a very dangerous region. 

For years, the Shiite Houthi rebel group has been staging an insurgency in northern Yemen.  Even with the aid of Saudi Arabia, Yemen’s weak government was unable to defeat this insurgency, allowing the rebels to maintain their bases in remote areas of northern Yemen.  However, a chaotic political situation in Yemen was worsened by a power struggle among some of the country’s leading political factions and this resulted in a power vacuum in Sana’a (Yemen’s capital) that was swiftly filled by the Houthi rebels, who swept down from their northern strongholds to seize the capital and oust the government of President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi.  In fact, the Houthis managed not only to capture Sana’a, but most of northern and central Yemen.  This led to President Hadi fleeing that capital and moving his base to the vital port city of Aden, the heart of another insurgency in Yemen, the one calling for southern Yemen to break away from Sana’a’s rule.  In recent days, the Houthis have launched a major offensive in the direction of Aden.  As far-fetched as it may seem, the Houthis, who once just controlled a sliver of territory in the north of the country, are on the verge of controlling all of the major population centers in Yemen.

If the conflict in Yemen were merely confined to the country’s territory, the greatest threat that the conflict would pose would be the threat of Yemen becoming a full-fledged failed state that could be used by militant groups to carry out attacks outside of Yemen.  This has already occurred in the country’s southeast, where al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula controls a sizeable territory in that region.  However, external powers also have a major stake in the situation in Yemen.  On one side, Saudi Arabia has a strong interest in preventing the Shiite Houthis from taking total control of Yemen.  With the Houthis rapidly expanding the territory under their control, Saudi Arabia may find itself forced to invade Yemen in order to defeat the Houthis, something that the Saudi government has thus far strenuously avoided.  On the other side, the Houthis primary foreign backer has been Iran.  Not only does Iran fall on the same side of Islam’s great sectarian divide, but there are also reports that Iranian military personnel are fighting alongside the Houthis in Yemen today.

The fact that the war in Yemen could quickly descend into a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran makes this conflict so dangerous.  Saudi Arabia is already deeply concerned about Iran’s dominant position in government-controlled areas of Iraq as well as its role in backing the Syrian government in that country’s civil war.  Moreover, the growing likelihood of a nuclear deal between Iran and the international community has deeply troubled the Saudi government.  Finally, Iran’s role in supporting Shiite minorities on the Arabian Peninsula (in Bahrain, Yemen and in Saudi Arabia itself) has angered Riyadh.  So far, Saudi Arabia has responded to Iran’s growing regional clout by backing the Bahrain government in its crackdown on the Shiite opposition in that country and by launching an economic war through lower oil prices (which have hit Iran’s economy with particular force).  Nevertheless, a direct military confrontation has thus far been avoided.  However, Saudi intervention in the conflict in Yemen could change that and could potentially escalate the rivalry between the region’s pre-eminent Sunni and Shiite powers to dangerous new levels.