China's Concerned Neighbors
During the periods of history when China was strong and united, it was the unchallenged dominant power in Asia. As part of this dominance, it sought to exert a great deal of direct and indirect control over its neighbors in the region, for when China is united, its economic and military power far outweighed that of any of its neighbors. However, when China was weak and divided, it often found itself being preyed upon by many of these same neighbors, not to mention the great powers from further abroad that sought to take advantage of China’s weakness, often using their positions in China’s neighbors to make inroads into China. Now, China is once again on the rise, a development that is stoking fears of Chinese domination among many of its neighboring countries.
Unlike the United States, whose rise to superpower status occurred while its faced almost no threats along its borders, China faces a myriad of challenges and threats caused by disputes along many of its borders. Of course, the US only shares a land border with two countries, whereas China has land borders with 14 countries and many of these borders are ill-defined. As such, as China’s power continues to grow, some of these borders are becoming the most important, and most dangerous, flashpoints in the world.
As China rises to superpower status, it seeks to establish a degree of harmony and prosperity that will enable China to maintain higher levels of stability and security. However, it seeks to establish this harmony and prosperity on its terms, with its neighbors acquiescing to Chinese economic and political demands. China’s first priority is to establish control over all of the territories and seas that Beijing views as belonging to China, most notably Taiwan and the South China Sea. Afterwards, China hopes to secure control of the sea lanes that connect China to the Pacific and Indian Oceans, putting it into dispute with maritime neighbors such as Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines. Control of these sea lanes would, in Beijing’s eyes, greatly enhance China’s ability to maintain its economic expansion, while giving it the opportunity to project power further abroad.
While these sea disputes have garnered a great deal of attention in recent years, it is China’s relations with its land neighbors that could determine whether or not China’s rise to superpower status remains a peaceful one. Should China further expand its influence over its neighbors, this would give China the dominant position in Asia that it seeks, for it is Asia that will be the engine of global economic growth in the coming decades. However, many of China’s neighbors are wary of falling into its orbit and are seeking to maintain their strategic and economic independence from Beijing.
As a country that shares a land border with 14 countries, it is no surprise that China is engaged in a large number of disputes with its neighboring countries. Clockwise from the north, here is a summary of China’s relations with its 14 neighbors:
- Russia: While Beijing and Moscow have worked together in recent years to offset the United States’ global power, China and Russia have a long history of territorial disputes. Meanwhile, as the Russian population in Siberia and the Russian Far East declines, Moscow is fearful that China will gradually become the dominant power in those regions and may one day make a land grab there.
- North Korea: China has backed North Korea in its standoffs with South Korea, Japan and the United States, as it fears that a collapse of North Korea would lead to a flood of Korean refugees into northeastern China and would result in US military forces being stationed along the Yalu River.
- Vietnam: China and Vietnam fought a short, but bloody, war in 1979 and relations between the two Communist neighbors have remained tense ever since. Now, the focus of the dispute between these two countries is found in the South China Sea, with China occupying strategic islands in waters claimed by Vietnam.
- Laos: China has enjoyed relatively good relations with Laos, although there are growing concerns within that country of the potential for Chinese domination of its economy.
- Myanmar: China enjoyed strong relations with Myanmar’s previous military government, but these relations have been weakened as Myanmar’s armed forces relinquished some of their power. Now, ethnic unrest in northern Myanmar has once again spilled across the border into China, threatening to destabilize that region.
- India: Relations between China and India will go a long way towards determining the stability of Asia in the 21st century. Unfortunately, these two giants have a number of border disputes that resulted in a major war in 1962 and have continued to spark clashes along this border in recent years. Furthermore, India is concerned about China’s military and economic expansion into the Indian Ocean.
- Bhutan: A standoff between Chinese and Indian troops last year along the point of the border where these two countries meet Bhutan highlights the strategic position held by this small Himalayan state. Traditionally aligned with India, Bhutan has seen an expansion of China’s economic presence in recent years.
- Nepal: Nepal has traditionally held close economic and political ties with India, but in recent years, some segments of Nepalese society have called for a strategic realignment towards China. This has made Nepal a center of the battle for influence between China and India in the Himalayan region.
- Pakistan: China and Pakistan enjoy very strong relations, with China having dramatically increased its investment in Pakistan in recent years. Moreover, China has become a major backer for Pakistan’s armed forces, a development that has greatly alarmed India.
- Afghanistan: China’s smallest land border is with Afghanistan (76km, 47 miles) and the difference in times zones along this border is an incredible 3.5 hours. Most of this border is nearly inaccessible and the rough terrain has thus far kept border issues to a minimum.
- Tajikistan: Chinese influence in Tajikistan, once quite small, has expanded dramatically in recent years as trade and defense ties between the two countries continue to grow. In fact, China’s influence over the Tajik economy is now substantial, as China accounts for nearly 60% of all foreign investment into that country.
- Kyrgyzstan: The ethnic and religious unrest that continues in the northwestern Chinese region of Xinjiang continues to dominate China’s relationship with Kyrgyzstan, as it seeks to prevent militant groups from using that country as a base for their activities in China.
- Kazakhstan: As with Kyrgyzstan, China’s interest in Kazakhstan is framed by the security situation in Xinjiang. However, China also sees Kazakhstan as the key to its economic expansion into Central Asia, while Kazakhstan views China as a counterbalance to Russian influence in the region.
- Mongolia: China and Mongolia have a long and tense bilateral relationship, with many in Mongolia fearful that China has designs on its vast, but largely unpopulated, territory. In recent years, Chinese investment in Mongolia has soared, leaving that country’s economy tied ever more closely to China.
For China’s neighbors, its rise is viewed as both an economic opportunity and a political and security risk. Given the vast scale of Chinese economic and military power, China’s neighbors will have to cooperate more closely in order to balance power in Asia in the coming years. Furthermore, they will also need outside help to balance economic and military power in the region. This help can only come from the United States, which maintains a very large economic and military presence in Asia. So far, the United States appears determined to work to maintain the balance of power in Asia and has increased its presence in the region in recent years. This places the US in a position similar to that which the United Kingdom filled in Europe in the 19th and early 20th centuries, where Britain sought to prevent any single power from dominating the region that was then the center of the world’s economy.
Now, the US is attempting to do the same in Asia by working more closely with many of the countries that surround China. Hopefully for Asia, these attempts at balancing China’s rising power will end better than they did for the UK in Europe, as the end result there was two world wars that devastated the region and left it at the mercy of outsiders. This is certainly not the result China envisions when its seeks a harmonious and prosperous future as a major world power and the leading power in Asia.