How the World Will Impact the US Presidential Election
In the United States, people tend to look at how decisions made there impact the rest of the world. However, as we head towards one of the most divisive presidential elections in US history, we need to analyze how events outside of the US' borders will impact what is expected to be a very close election. In fact, there are many examples in the country's history of events outside of the US playing a pivotal role in deciding the outcomes of presidential elections. For example, the Iran hostage crisis played a major role in Ronald Reagan’s victory over Jimmy Carter in 1980. Even the US' last presidential election was impacted by external events, particularly the Covid-19 pandemic which played a major role in 2020’s election.
Interestingly, the past two presidential administrations have enacted foreign policies and managed international economic relations that were not all that different from one another in terms of substance, even if their styles contrasted greatly. This was particularly true in terms of economic policy, as each of the last two administrations favored largely-protectionist policies. Likewise, the last two administrations also had many similar strategies when it came to foreign relations, at least in terms of issues such as the US’ relationship with China and the war in Gaza. However, one major difference was the Biden Administration’s preference for alliances, whereas the Trump Administration was far more transactional in its foreign relations. This was most notable in their differences with regards to Russia and the war in Ukraine.
As Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the reins of the Democratic Party from President Biden and prepares to face former President Donald Trump in November, there are four major issues outside of the borders of the United States that could swing the upcoming election.
China: While it may not garner the attention that it should in the United States, the most important global issue facing the US is its relationship with China. Geopolitically and economically, China is the only power that can realistically challenge the United States’ position of global leadership. Furthermore, there are a number of flashpoints (Taiwan, the South China Sea, etc.) that could trigger a conflict between the world’s two leading powers. Meanwhile, China has already had a massive impact on the economy of the US, and as China’s economy slows, it will likely be very aggressive in promoting exports, something that could worsen the US’ already-negative trade balance with China.
Russia and Ukraine: One of the most noticeable differences in terms of foreign policy between the two main candidates in this year’s presidential election is their stance on the war between Russia and Ukraine. For years, Russia has been spreading misinformation to voters in the United States and this has had a noticeable impact on some sectors of the US electorate. For example, misinformation has played a role in the fact that an increasing share of the electorate wants the US to stop supporting Ukraine. Here, former President Trump wants the US to stop backing Ukraine, which Vice President Harris has vowed to maintain the Biden Administration’s support for that country.
The Middle East: Despite having a combined population that only equals that of the state of Ohio, the war in Israel and Gaza has dominated the headlines in the United States for the past eleven months. While there may be many more impactful global issues facing the US, it is this one that elicits the most emotion among many voters in the US. Furthermore, while there are few positives to be gained by the United States from its involvement in this conflict, it can have a major impact on the upcoming election. This is due to the fact that even small shifts in the voting trends of Arab-Americans or Jewish-Americans could sway the outcome of some swing states in November.
Latin America: One issue that is certain to be critical in determining the outcome of the upcoming presidential election is immigration. While the number of migrants arriving at the US’ southern border has fallen in recent months, the view of many US voters is that immigration numbers are continuing to soar. As a result, the potential for unrest in a handful of Latin American countries (most notably Venezuela, Haiti and Ecuador) could lead to a new surge in the number of migrants arriving at the US’ southern border between now and the election. This too could play a major role in the election, especially in southern swing states such as Arizona and Nevada.
As the world’s leading power, the United States continues to play a major role in global affairs. However, the world is also playing a larger role in domestic affairs in the US and will certainly play a major role in this year’s presidential election. In fact, this could be one of those years in which events outside of the United States' borders play a crucial role in determining the outcome of a presidential election.