Five Upcoming Elections That Will Make a Mockery of Democracy
After a relatively slow start to the election year in 2018, things are about to pick up, with 19 national elections scheduled to take place between now and the end of April. Of these national elections, some will undoubtedly prove to be both free and fair, with little inside or outside tampering with the electoral process. Other elections, including some of those that will be almost 100% free and fair, will nevertheless be heavily influenced by right-wing and left-wing populist parties and leaders. For example, populist candidates and parties will play a major role in determining the outcomes of many of these elections, including those in Italy, Hungary and Costa Rica. In other cases, these upcoming elections will be little more than a sham, with the outcomes of these elections already pre-determined and with a peaceful change in power all but ruled out. Here are five of these national elections that will be anything but free and fair.
- Cuba: The first of these less than free and fair elections will take place in Cuba, where only pre-approved members of Cuba’s Communist Party are eligible to run in single-member constituencies. However, these elections will be interesting for the fact that they will signal the end of the rule of President Raul Castro, who is stepping down after ten years in power, presumably to hand over power to a new generation of leaders in a country that has been ruled by the Castro brothers for nearly 60 years.
- Russia: One week later, Russian will go to polls to vote in a presidential election that is sure to be won by President Vladimir Putin, who has dominated Russian politics for nearly two decades. While President Putin would likely win a free and fair election, this election will be anything but free and fair as the government has made sure that all credible challengers to President Putin have been barred from taking part in this election.
- Egypt: Later in March, Egyptian voters will be given the option of re-electing President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi or voting for the only other candidate in this election, Moussa Mostafa Moussa. The problem is that Mr. Moussa is a supporter of President SIsi and will probably vote for the president himself, highlighting the farcical nature of an election in which all potential rivals to the president were persuaded to withdraw from the election in recent months.
- Azerbaijan: Two weeks after Egypt’s laughable election, Azerbaijan will hold its own presidential election. As President Ilham Aliyev, the son of President Heydar Aliyev, has won at least 85% of the vote in each of the past three presidential elections in Azerbaijan, there is little doubt as to the outcome of this election. The Aliyevs have ruled Azerbaijan has their own personal fiefdom for the past 25 years, and there is little chance this rule will come to an end this year.
- Venezuela: While each of these four previous elections are tragic in their own way, none is more tragic than the presidential election that will take place in late April in Venezuela. While President Nicolas Maduro may be the world’s most incompetent political leader (which is saying something in today’s political climate), he will likely win re-election thanks to the fact that the political opposition is divided and may decide to boycott what is sure to be anything but a free and fair election. Such a result will do nothing to bring an end to the economic and social collapse of what was once Latin America’s wealthiest country.
When looking at these five less than free and fair upcoming elections, one question stands out. Why do these countries bother to maintain a façade of democracy when they have all transitioned to what are clearly autocratic political systems? In many cases, the leaders or parties in charge of these countries no longer have any serious political opponents, while in others, their opponents have been so weakened and marginalized as to no longer pose a serious threat to their rule. Nevertheless, while they tolerate no serious threats to their rule, autocratic leaders and governments recognize that democracy, even if it is a poor facsimile of it, has a strong attraction for a country’s citizens.
Until recently, many of the world’s most powerful countries, led by the United States, had the power, will and influence to force democracy on reluctant leaders and governments. At the same time, many would-be autocratic leaders wanted to curry favor with the US and its allies, particularly when the US’ power in the world was unchallenged in the two decades after the Cold War. However, as alternatives to US power and influence have emerged in recent years, most notable the anything-but-democratic China, the pull of democracy has lost some of its attraction.
These upcoming elections highlight many of the threats facing the democratic political system in the 21st century. For example, changes in voting patterns have made it harder to govern in many democratic countries. One need only look at the partisanship in the United States or the struggles to form stable governments in Europe to recognize that even the world’s longest-standing democracies are finding themselves on ever-more shaky ground.
At the same time, credible alternatives to democracy have emerged in recent years. During the Cold War, democracies clearly outperformed other political systems in terms of generating wealth and improving living standards for their citizens. However, China’s economic miracle has provided an alternative, a stable autocracy run by a single party that has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. As China’s influence grows, it will attract countries with governments that have no interest in adopting the sorts of democratic practices that were once forced upon them by the United States and its allies.
As a result, there is no assurance that democracy will continue to spread in the coming years and decades, and, should the current trends continue in the world’s leading democracies, a roll back of democracy cannot be ruled out. For a system of government that seemed sure to conquer the world not too long ago, this is a shocking development, but one for which democracies have only themselves to blame.