Britain and the EU
With all of the troubles that have confronted the European Union in recent years, the looming referendum on Great Britain’s membership in the EU is a problem that could not have come at a worse time for that organization. As one of the most powerful and dynamic members of the European Union, the loss of Britain would deal a major blow to an organization that has seen its future called into question in recent years. Now, amid the ongoing refugee crisis in Europe and the economic problems that continue to beset the region, the next four months will see a bitter struggle to convince British voters to opt to remain a part of the European project. Undoubtedly, the decision by British voters in June will go a long way towards determining the future of both the European Union and Britain.
According to most recent polls, British voters are fairly evenly divided on whether or not to withdraw their country from the European Union. In fact, recent polls have shown an increase in the number of British voters that favor leaving the EU, although those in favor of remaining within the EU continue to hold a slight lead. This represents the widespread unease within Britain regarding the direction of European integration and the perceived threats emanating from continental Europe in the form of economic stagnation and uncontrolled migration. Interesting, most of Britain’s political and business leaders favor Britain’s continued membership in the EU and even the highly-Eurosceptic Conservative party is divided on this issue, with Prime Minister David Cameron leading the pro-EU movement. So far, most analysts believe that British voters will opt to remain in the European Union, if only by a narrow margin. However, the threat of more bad news on the economic or security fronts in Europe in the coming weeks and months could yet convince enough British voters that their country’s future is brighter outside of the EU.
It is easy to understand the anger that many British voters harbor for the European Union. For example, Europe has become a byword for economic stagnation and bureaucracy and many British voters believe that their country is better served severing many of its official ties with slower growing and more statist continental European countries. Moreover, these voters believe that Britain’s future would be better assured by enhancing ties with the faster-growing and more dynamic English-speaking countries such as the United States, Canada and Australia. However, a decision to leave the European Union would have many negative ramifications for Britain as well. For example, the EU remains the UK’s dominant trading partner and leaving the EU would still leave Britain subject to EU trade and investment standards when it came to bilateral economic ties. Moreover, Britain’s leading overseas partners such as the United States and Australia have called on the UK to remain within the EU, as their relations with the EU benefit from Britain’s membership in that body. Additionally, support for Scotland’s independence from the UK could grow significantly if Britain was no longer a member of the European Union. Finally, as a middle-sized power, Britain’s ability to exert power and influence in the world is limited, despite the dominance of the English language and Britain’s close ties to many of its former colonies.
From the perspective of the rest of the European Union, there is quite a bit of unease at Britain’s attempts to gain some type of privileged membership in that body by threatening to leave the EU. For example, those countries that favor a greater degree of economic and political integration have often found their efforts blocked by the UK, which favors a European Union that is little more than a free-trade area. In addition, those EU member states that dream of Europe one day becoming a counterweight to the United States believe that the UK is too closely aligned with their giant partner across the Atlantic. However, much as the UK needs the EU, so too does the EU need the UK. For example, Britain’s service and financial sectors dominate Europe and attract much of the investment that comes into Europe from outside of the region. In addition, Britain has by many measures the most powerful armed forces of any EU member state and defense ties between the UK and the rest of Europe could suffer from a UK withdrawal from the EU. Finally, at a time when the English language is now the de facto official language of the European Union, it would be quite strange to find that the EU’s only large English-speaking country was no longer a member of that body. In short, the two sides need one another to remain relevant in the 21st century, whether they like it or not.