The Implications of the Conservatives' Victory in Britain

In the days just before Britain’s parliamentary elections, all polls showed that the Conservatives and their Labour opponents were running neck-and-neck and that neither party would come close to winning a majority of the seats in the House of Commons, thus forcing one of them to form a coalition government.  However, the governing Conservatives, led by Prime Minister David Cameron, scored a major surprise victory, winning enough seats in the House of Commons to be able to avoid having to once again form a coalition government.  This surprise result promises to have major implications for the United Kingdom, both internally and with its foreign partners.

In a major surprise, Prime Minister Cameron’s Conservative Party won 36.8% of the vote and a majority of the seats in the House of Commons and the party now holds 331 of the 650 seats in that body.  In contrast, the opposition Labour Party slumped to a shocking defeat, winning just 232 seats in the House of Commons and being wiped out in Scotland by the Scottish National Party (SNP), which won 56 of the 59 seats in Scotland.  Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats (the Conservatives’ junior coalition partner in the previous government) suffered a crushing defeat, winning just 7.9% of the vote and just eight seats in the House of Commons.  As for the right-wing UK Independence Party, it managed to win just one seat in the House of Commons, but the fact that it received 12.6% of the popular vote highlights the upstart party’s staying power.

The Conservatives’ victory in these elections will have major implications domestically for the United Kingdom.  On the economic front, the Conservative victory means that the policies of the past few years will be continued, even as the recently robust British economy appears to be slightly slowing.  One area where the Conservative-led government will want to focus is on wage growth, as a strengthening British job market has not led to a corresponding increase in average wages, leading to a widening wealth gap in the UK.  Meanwhile, the crushing victory by the Scottish National Party in Scotland means that another referendum on Scottish independence could be forthcoming in the near future, despite the Scots’ recent rejection of independence.

The surprise victory by the Conservatives will also have major implications for the United Kingdom’s relationships with many of its leading international partners.  First and foremost, Prime Minister Cameron vowed, if the Conservatives would win these elections, to hold a referendum in 2017 on the withdrawal of Britain from the European Union.  Recent polls have indicated that the gap between those British voters that want to stay in the EU and those that want to leave is very small, so this referendum is likely to poison Britain’s relations with many of its European partners.  Meanwhile, the Conservative-led government will be sure to maintain strong relations with the United States, although further cuts in defense spending are likely to strain relations between the two long-time allies.  As such, the Conservative government will find itself facing a number of challenges, both within and outside of its borders.