Elections to Watch in 2017
2016 will be forever linked with the rise of populism and the crucial election results in the United States (Donald Trump) and the United Kingdom (Brexit). Add to this the growing support for nationalist, protectionist and isolationist policies throughout the world, and 2016 is likely to be seen as either the turning point in modern politics, or an outlier in the inevitable drive towards increasing globalization. If 2014 was the year in which more voters went to the polls to vote in national elections than any year in history, and 2015 was the year of inconclusive elections, then 2016 was the year of populism-dominated elections. As we approach the end of 2016, it is a good time to look ahead to the elections scheduled for 2017 that will either further these trends of inconclusive and populist-dominated elections, or will return the democratic world to the more centrist position that it occupied in previous years.
If the United States’ seemingly-never-ending presidential election dominated the headlines in 2016, then Europe will be the location of many of 2017’s most-watched elections. It is here in Europe where both of the aforementioned electoral trends (inconclusive elections and rising populist sentiment) have been in place for years and could dominate next year’s most important elections in Europe. The first signs as to how Europe will trend next year will come from the Netherlands’ national elections in March 2017, as the far-right Freedom Party led by Geert Wilders has been in first or second place in all pre-election polls and has dominated the direction of Dutch politics in recent years. One month later, French voters will go to the polls to elect a successor the hapless President Francois Hollande, who wisely decided not to seek another term in office due to an approval rating of just 4%. This election will also be shaped by a far-right leader, this time the Front National’s Marine Le Pen, who is likely to make it to the run-off election, most likely against the leading conservative candidate, Francois Fillon.
Meanwhile, the country that has come to dominate the European Union in recent years, Germany, will go to the polls for parliamentary elections in autumn of 2017. While Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU-CSU alliance is all but certain to win the largest share of the vote, the far-right AfD and the far-left “Die Linke” party are both expected to win more than 10% of the vote, potentially complicating efforts to form a post-election coalition government. Any political stalemate in Germany would be bad news for the future of the European Union. Finally, Italy may be forced to hold early parliament elections next year in the wake of the resignation of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi after his proposed constitutional reforms were rejected by Italian voters in a national referendum.
Outside of Europe, 2017 will be a relatively quiet year for national elections, with few larger countries going to the polls next year. Of the national elections taking place outside of Europe next year, four are worth watching. In Ecuador, presidential and parliamentary elections will determine who will succeed the left-wing President Rafael Correa, who is stepping down after ten years in power amid a major slump for the Ecuadorian economy. In Iran, the reformist President Hassan Rouhani is expected to seek a second term in office in that country’s presidential election next year, but could face a tough challenge from hardliners who appear to have gained support in recent months.
In late 2017, Chilean voters will go to the polls in presidential and parliamentary elections that will choose the successor to President Michelle Bachelet, whose second stint in office has proven to be much less successful than her first. Finally, right before the end of 2017, South Korea will hold a presidential election, but it is increasingly unlikely that the current president, Park Geun-hye, will be in office at this point as she is facing calls for her resignation or impeachment due to the ongoing scandal involving the influence of a close friend (and daughter of a cult leader) over the president and her government.
While 2017 may lack the high profile elections of recent years, it will nevertheless serve as an interesting benchmark regarding the trend towards more support for nationalist, isolationist and protectionist policies. On the populist front, many of next year’s most important elections will be heavily influenced by populist candidates and parties, on both the political right and left. Moreover, many of the tactics used so successfully by populist leaders in 2016’s most important elections will sure to be emulated by populists in next year’s elections. Another key aspect to watch will be the growing support for protectionist economic policies, as many of the countries voting next year have struggled to record significant economic growth in recent years, most notably France, where the rise in support for protectionism is a threat to the future of the European Union.
Security issues are also likely to play a key role in many elections next year, particularly in Europe, which faces an escalated threat of terrorism in the wake of that region’s migration crisis and the multitude of conflicts around Europe’s periphery. In fact, all of these issues will play major roles in 2017’s leading elections and will influence the results of elections all around the world. Moreover, as 2016 has taught us, elections in the modern world are no longer foregone conclusions, so each of these key elections will be close monitored to detect voting trends that could influence all countries around the world.