Russia's Aims in Ukraine

Until recently, Ukrainian armed forces and militias aligned with the Ukrainian government appeared to be on the cusp of victory against the pro-Russian militants that had seized control of a large area of eastern Ukraine. Not only were pro-Russian militants on the verge of losing their last two remaining strongholds in Donetsk and Luhansk, but the amount of territory under their control was shrinking on a daily basis. However, the recent influx of Russian arms and “off duty” personnel has tipped the balance back in favor of the pro-Russian militias and this has allowed them to force the Ukrainian armed forces out of a large area of eastern Ukraine.

It is clear that Russian President Vladimir Putin would not accept the total defeat of the pro-Russian militants in eastern Ukraine as this would result in a government in Kiev that is hostile to Russia being in full control of all of Ukraine’s territory (apart from Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in March 2014). As such a defeat neared last month, President Putin realized that he must either dramatically step up his backing of the pro-Russian militants or face the prospect of losing Ukraine for good. Realizing that this would be a massive geopolitical setback for Russia and its ambitions to dominate what it calls Eurasia, President Putin decided that it was worth facing the likely economic sanctions from the West instead of allowing a pro-West government in Kiev to dominate all of Ukraine’s territory.

The obvious question now is what Russia’s next move will be in Ukraine. As we have argued, Russia is in no position to militarily take and maintain control over all of Ukraine. Instead, Russia’s aims are more modest. First, Russia does not want a government in Kiev that seeks membership in NATO or allows NATO forces onto its territory. Second, Russia wants to be the dominant power in areas of eastern Ukraine that contain large populations of ethnic Russians or Ukrainians aligned with Russia. Third, Russia is seeking a land bridge to Crimea as that territory’s electricity, water and land infrastructure are all dependent upon Ukraine and are not directly connected with Russia. The increased Russian support for the pro-Russian militants and the victories that this has given them in recent weeks may allow Russia to get most of what it wants, even at the cost of a near total split with the West.