What is Next for Syria and Iraq?

Unfortunately for the more than 57 million people who call (or used to call) Iraq and Syria home, war has become a way of life for both of these countries and there is little prospect for peace in either country in the coming years.  For Iraq, that country has more or less been in some state of war or conflict since 1980, with civil wars mixing with conflicts involving the United States, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and a host of other countries over the past 36 years.  For Syria, war is a relatively new experience as that country enjoyed a 38-year period of relative (in Middle Eastern terms) peace that was only shattered by the devastating civil war that broke out in 2011.  Now, both countries appear hopelessly divided and the people of both countries hold out little hope for a return of peace in the near future.  In fact, the deep divisions within each country’s borders suggest that neither country will ever again enjoy stability without a redrawing of their borders.

For Iraq, 36 years of war and unrest has decimated what had once been one of the wealthiest and most developed countries in the Middle East.  Moreover, 2014’s seizure of much of western and central Iraq by the radical Islamic State militant group has dramatically reshaped that country, deepening the ethnic and religious divisions there to an even greater extent.  In recent weeks, the Iraqi government, with the backing of Shiite militias, has moved to recapture territory seized in 2014 by the Islamic State, including a current effort to recapture the city of Fallujah and what is likely to be a major effort to retake the vital northern city of Mosul later this year.  Even if the government and its Shiite militia allies manage to drive the Islamic State from their strongholds in Iraq, that country will remain deeply divided, with Kurds in the north demanding greater autonomy and with the country’s Sunni minority deeply mistrusting the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad.  As such, a defeat of the Islamic State is unlikely to bring peace and stability to Iraq. 

Meanwhile, the situation in neighboring Syria remains extremely volatile and a recent partial ceasefire has done little to stem the fighting in that country.  Thanks to the support of Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, Syrian government forces have managed to regain the initiative, gaining ground against various rebel forces in northern Syria and pushing back the Islamic State in central Syria.  Now, major fighting is underway as Syrian government forces seek to expand their stronghold in northwestern Syria, while capturing the areas of the major cities of Aleppo and Homs that they do not already control.  Nevertheless, Syrian government forces lack manpower and are now increasingly dependent upon the support of their foreign allies to continue the war.  In the meantime, the United States and its allies are likely to step up their air campaign against the Islamic State in Syria, adding to the myriad of domestic and foreign groups currently involved in that country’s civil war.  As no side has managed to gain an overwhelming advantage over their rivals, power in Syria will remain balanced, preventing any side from winning a decisive victory and prolonging that country’s misery.

While the basis for the conflicts in Iraq and Syria are the internal divisions that have bedeviled both countries since they were created by Britain and France nearly 100 years ago, that fact is now that these countries have become battlefields for many of the region’s leading powers.  For decades, the United States was the dominant power in the Middle East, intervening in such conflicts when it was in the US’ interest to do so.  However, the US has attempted to reduce its exposure to this volatile region in the wake of its disastrous occupation of Iraq following the US’ defeat of Saddam Hussein.  Now, Russia, despite its limited ability to project power far beyond its borders, has returned to the region and is seeking to play a leading role in the conflict in Syria.  Meanwhile, the Sunni-Shiite divide within the Middle East has led to a major standoff between Saudi Arabia and its Sunni allies on one side, and Iran and its Shiite allies on the other.  These two sides are now fighting proxy wars in both Iraq and Syria (as well as in Yemen), increasing the flow of fighters and weapons into these two countries.  All the while, two other regional powers, Turkey and Israel, are watching developments in Iraq and Syria uneasily, knowing that the outcome of these conflicts will have a major impact on their future security.  When all of these factors are considered, it is clear that there is no end in sight for the civil wars underway in Iraq and Syria as too many powers have a major stake in the outcome of these conflicts.