ISA Risk Alert: The Coronavirus Crisis (3rd of April)
Daily Summary
The number of known cases of the coronavirus (Covid-19) around the world surpassed the one million mark, while the number of fatalities linked to the pandemic rose to more than 53,000.
According to our latest forecasts, the number of cases of Covid-19 will rise to four million by the end of this month, with the number of deaths around the world reaching nearly 350,000. By May, Europe and North America will each have more than one million cases of Covid-19, but the most rapid growth in the number of cases will be found in regions such as South Asia and Latin America.
There have numerous reports in recent days suggesting that China has vastly under-reported the number of fatalities in the Hubei province that resulted from this outbreak. According to some estimates, the actual number of fatalities is much closer to 40,000. China claims that 3,322 people have died from the virus in that country.
Official fatality rates from this pandemic continue to trend upwards, and while it is certain that many cases are going unreported, this is nevertheless a disturbing trend. Some of the highest fatality rates are found in Italy (12.1%), Spain (9.2%), France (9.1%) and the Netherlands (9.1%).
Key Developments
Another Unemployment Surge in the United States: After rising to a record 3.3 million the week before, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the United States rose even further last week, reaching an astounding 6.6 million. The US’ unemployment rate could reach 15% this year.
United Kingdom Testing Problems: More than most countries in Europe, the United Kingdom has struggled to conduct adequate numbers of tests for the coronavirus. This has contributed to much of the uncertainty surrounding the outbreak in that country, as well as its higher fatality rate.
Trend to Watch
After much debate over whether or not to recommend the wearing of masks in public, governments and health associations in North America, Europe and elsewhere are increasingly turning to recommending that masks should indeed be worn in public.
The Coming Days
There are increasing concerns that supplies of fresh foods such as fruits and vegetables will fall sharply in the coming months due to transportation and logistics disruptions and a lack of workers as borders have been closed. Higher food prices are also expected.