Indonesia - A Potential Giant

For most of the past 75 years, only one or two powers at a time have been in a position to exercise great influence around the world.  First there was the Cold War in which the United States and Soviet Union dominated global affairs.  Now, in the wake of the dissolution of the Soviet Union, China has emerged to join the United States as one of the world’s two dominant powers.  However, there are a number of other states or alliances that seek to enhance their position in the world and to ascend to great power status, if still ranking a level below that of the US and China.  Such powers include Russia, India and the European Union, each of which exerts significant power in one or two areas, but lacks power in others. 

One country that is often overlooked when it comes to the world’s leading powers is Indonesia, for despite its large population and extensive land and sea holdings, it has thus far exerted very little power and influence on the global stage.  Could this be about to change? 

A number of factors make Indonesia a country that has great power potential.  One obvious factor is the massive size of Indonesia’s population, which currently stands at 262 million, making it the fourth-most-populous country in the world, behind only China, India and the United States.  Moreover, while Indonesia’s population is growing, the rate of growth is slowing, resulting in a more manageable level of population growth that will place less stress on the country’s environment and will reduce the required level of job creation needed to satisfy the demands of the country’s working-age population. 

Another key factor that gives Indonesia the potential to be a great power is its location.  Indonesia is located in a prime economic position at the heart of a region stretching from fast-growing China in the north to resource-rich Australia in the south.  This will make Indonesia an increasingly attractive business and investment location for many years to come and will provide a vast market for Indonesian exports. 

One other factor worth mentioning is that Indonesia is home to the world’s largest Muslim population, with the country’s 225 million Muslims comprising nearly 13% of all of the world’s Muslim population.  While Indonesia’s ties to the rest of the Muslim world are relatively distant at present, the country’s vast Muslim population gives it the means to exert more influence over other Muslim countries in the future.

Indonesia undoubtedly has the potential to become one of the world’s most powerful and influential countries.  However, there are a number of major challenges that Indonesia will have to overcome if it wishes to achieve its potential power.  First, Indonesia’s geography is both a blessing and a curse, a situation that is highlighted by the fact that the country is comprised of at least 18,000 islands that stretch more than 5,100 kilometers (3,170 miles) from east-to-west and 1,760 kilometers (1,095 miles) from north-to-south.  This jumbled geographic situation is matched by the diversity of Indonesia’s population, which consists of large numbers of different ethnic, religious and linguistic groups that are scattered around Indonesia’s vast territory. 

As a result, more of Indonesia’s efforts and resources are devoted to maintaining the unity and cohesiveness of the country than in any other country with great power ambitions.  Furthermore, Indonesia has thus far exerted very little political or military influence, either in its home region or in more distant areas of the world.  Moreover, Indonesia remains a relatively poor emerging market, where wealth levels remain below those of most other countries with major global ambitions.  Finally, the Indonesian economy is in need of modernization, something that will only be achieved through much higher levels of investment, both foreign and domestic.

In recent years, Indonesia has achieved a relatively high degree of political stability, as well as strong levels of economic growth.  This has helped to boost confidence levels among decision-makers in Indonesia and has led to increasing calls for the country to play a greater role in regional and global affairs.  Furthermore, at a time when the Muslim world is being torn apart by sectarian divisions, Indonesia is finding itself being courted by the world’s other leading Muslim powers, something that could lead to Indonesia turning westwards to play a much greater role in the affairs of Muslim-populated areas in that direction.  At the same time, Indonesia is casting a wary eye northwards at China’s growing power, particularly as China seeks to enforce its claims to the South China Sea, claims that, in some areas, overlap those of Indonesia. 

While Indonesia is being drawn into many affairs further away from its borders, its focus must nevertheless remain inward, as preserving the country’s unity and stability will remain the primary goal of all future governments in Jakarta.  Nevertheless, as Indonesia’s economic and cultural power grows, it will be called upon to play a greater role in regional and global affairs, reinforcing its position as a power on the rise.