What is Next for Syria?

The Battle of Aleppo is likely to go down as one of the most important developments in Syria’s five-year civil war.  While the city of Aleppo, the largest city in Syria, has been devastated and its population forced to endure incredible hardships, the result of the battle has been an unquestioned victory for the Syrian government.  Now, all of Syria’s leading urban centers are in the hands of the Syrian government, which now controls most the country’s heartland stretching from Aleppo in the north to Damascus in the south. 

In contrast, Syria’s various rebel groups are deeply divided, both ideologically and geographically, and find themselves on the defensive around their key strongholds in northern and southern Syria.  This has raised expectations that the civil war could finally come to an end in 2017.  However, it is unlikely that the Syrian government has the ability to win control of the 60% of Syria’s territory that remains outside of its control, prolonging the country’s misery and suffering. 

Not long ago, the Syrian government was on the defensive in many areas of the country and it appeared that its days were numbered as the territory under its control continued to shrink.  While Kurdish militias controlled much of northern Syria and the radical Islamic State controlled all of eastern Syria, other rebel groups were in control of many of the most strategic locations in the vital stretch of land that contains most of the country’s population in the western third of the country.  Moreover, manpower shortages were preventing the Syrian government from launching large-scale offensives to retake territories that they had lost. 

However, the Assad regime’s foreign backers stepped in when the situation for seemed hopeless for the Syrian government and helped to turn the tide of the war.  First, Iran and Hezbollah dramatically increased their military support for the government, with Iran providing arms and funding and with Hezbollah supplying desperately-needed manpower.  Later, Russia stepped in on the side of the Syrian government, providing it with the air power that has allowed the Syrian government’s side to control the skies and to go back on the offensive against the rebels.  This backing has been in sharp contrast to the uneven foreign support provided to most of Syria’s rebel groups and has unquestionably shifted the balance of power in Syria’s civil war back to the side of the government. 

Now that Aleppo is back in its hands, the Syrian government will have to consider its next steps as the war enters its sixth year in 2017.  Clearly, the battle for Aleppo was a major drain on the government, particularly in light of the continuing manpower issues confronting the regime.  However, Russian air power will remain a major advantage for the government’s side and will allow it to continue to pound rebel strongholds in northern and southern Syria.  Already, the government and its allies are stepping up their pressure on the large chunk of northwestern Syria still under the control of rebel forces and this will likely remain the focus of the government’s war plans in the first months of 2017.  In addition, government forces are likely to attempt to push rebel groups further away from the capital, Damascus, in southern Syria. 

Elsewhere, the government is unlikely to do much, if anything, to regain control of the large areas of Syria under the control of Kurdish militias or the Islamic State, leaving the Kurds and the IS to fight one another, while outside powers such as the United States and Turkey focus on those areas of Syria.

While the Battle of Aleppo is clearly a turning point in the civil war, and while the nature of the conflict may change following this crucial battle, there appears to be little or no chance that the conflict will be brought to an end in 2017.  Despite the loss of Aleppo, the various rebel groups in Syria still have 150,000 troops in the field and continue to control large areas of the country.  However, the loss of Aleppo was a major blow for Syria’s more moderate rebel groups and this will lead to greater power and influence for more hardline and radical rebel groups as the war enters 2017.  Moreover, the rebels may turn to a more guerrilla style of warfare now that they no longer control any large urban areas in Syria.  

Meanwhile, despite many setbacks, the Islamic State remains in control of much of eastern Syria and still has the ability to carry out attacks deep into central and western areas of the country, even as US-backed Kurdish militias and rebel groups approach the IS’ de facto capital, Raqqa, from the north.  Likewise, Kurdish groups are likely to resist any efforts by the Syrian government to regain control of the areas of northern Syria that have been under Kurdish rule in recent years. 

As such, while it is clear that the tide has turned in Syria’s civil war, it is unlikely that the Syrian government will be able to bring the war to a close in 2017 and regain control of all of the territory within Syria’s borders.  This will result in more deaths and more suffering for the people of Syria and will further the devastation of this country to a point where it could take decades for Syria to recover.