ISA Ukraine Conflict Update - 17th of March 2022

Daily Summary

Russia’s armed forces continued to suffer heavy losses as their invasion of Ukraine has ground to a near-halt along most areas of the front. This has forced Russia to move to bring troops and equipment from other areas of Russia, as well as from foreign sources, to various areas of the frontline, especially to areas outside of the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.

Along the front near Kyiv, Russian forces have continued to try and gain ground in areas to the west of the capital. However, Ukrainian forces continue to repel these attacks. Instead, Russia has stepped up its attacks on civilian targets in and around Kyiv, while moving to assemble more troops and weapons along this area of the front.

Little fighting has been reported along most areas of the eastern front in recent days as the Russian offensive against Kharkiv has been brought to a temporary halt. In addition, efforts to link the eastern front with the breakaway region of Luhansk have yet to reach their objectives, despite some Russian territorial gains to the north of the Luhansk region.

Along the southern front, the siege of Mariupol continued, devastating that city and killing thousands of civilians. In fact, most of Russia’s focus in the south is now on capturing Mariupol, leaving an expected attack in the direction of Odesa off the table for the time being.

What to Watch in the Coming Days

The Mariupol Tragedy: The siege of Mariupol has become a tragedy for the civilians still trapped in that city and for the thousands of people that have already died there. This could be a foreshadowing of what could happed to Kyiv or Kharkiv if Russian forces are able to encircle those cities.

The Race to Re-Supply: As the war is now a stalemate along much of the frontline, the race is on for both sides to reinforce their military capabilities, with Russia scrambling to bring in forces from all corners of that country and with Ukraine desperately hoping for immediate NATO military support.