The Shifting Balance of Power in Europe
Since the end of the Second World War, the primary focus of Europe’s leading powers has been to maintain peace in the region by bringing the various countries that make up Europe closer together, both economically and politically. Prior to the world wars of the first half of the 20th century, European powers were able to battle for supremacy in Europe, or to attempt to improve their position within Europe’s balance of power, without fear of outside interference as they were the strongest powers in the world.
However, the Cold War that followed the Second World War showed that this was no longer the case, as outside powers such as the United States and the Soviet Union were far more powerful than any individual European state. This left European countries as the junior partners to these superpowers. This dynamic lasted until recently, but now, the question of the balance of power in Europe is resurfacing. This is due to the fact that, the last two powers that acted as the ensurers of a balance of power in Europe, Britain and the US, are losing their interest in playing this role. In addition, while Russia is still around and is seeking to expand its influence in Europe, it is nevertheless a power in steep decline. As a result, Europe is likely to find itself torn between continuing the process of unification, while managing a shifting balance of power among individual European states.
Since the 15th century, changes in the balance of power in Europe not only destabilized the continent, but also had repercussions all around the world. Between the 15th and the 20th centuries, first Spain, then France and finally Germany all made serious bids to establish a hegemonic position on the continent of Europe. However, they all failed due to the presence of rival powers interested in preserving Europe’s balance of power, first Britain and later Russia and the United States. These struggles culminated in two world wars, which were largely the result of Germany’s efforts to rise to a position of undisputed dominance in Europe.
In the wake of Germany’s defeat, and the destruction of much of Europe, the United States and the USSR dominated Europe throughout the 45-year Cold War. Due to the overwhelming power advantages held by the US and the USSR, peace was maintained in Europe during most of the Cold War, giving the continent its longest-ever period without major conflict. However, the collapse of the Soviet Union dramatically changed the balance of power in Europe, leaving the US dominant militarily, and allowing Germany to return to its position as the continent’s leading economic power.
While the US and the Soviet Union dominated European affairs throughout the Cold War, individual European states, realizing their weakness vis-à-vis the superpowers, moved to end the competition for power among themselves, particularly with regards to the rivalry between Germany and France. This led to the creation of the European Union as we know it today, which together with NATO on the military front, has unified the various countries of Europe like never before.
However, the weakness of modern-day Russia, coupled with the United States’ declining interest in Europe, is threatening to result in some of Europe’s old rivalries resurfacing. Already, Britain is preparing to leave the European Union, something that will reduce British influence in continental Europe and could weaken Europe’s collective security and defense. In addition, Europe’s recent economic woes have left Germany as the continent’s dominant economic power, something that has been enhanced by the dramatic decline in southern Europe’s economic power over the past decade. This worries France, which sees itself as Germany’s equal partner as the co-leaders of the EU. Now, the leaders of Germany and France will either find a way to further integrate the member states of the European Union, or old rivalries will continue to resurface.
Indeed, this is the great question for Europe going forward. Can it continue to process of integration, which many Europeans blame for their recent economic troubles, or will member states gradually claw back many of the powers that they have delegated to the European Union? Furthermore, it remains to be seen if the United States will remain strongly engaged in the defense and security of Europe, or if it will turn to Asia, or even inwards, leaving Europe to fend for itself in an increasingly dangerous neighborhood.
Inside Europe, the withdrawal of the UK from the EU will further strengthen Germany’s position within that organization. However, Germany’s longer-term outlook is muddled by that country’s demographic decline, a threat facing many European countries. Meanwhile, France has seen its position within the EU decline significantly in recent years, and unless it can regain some of its lost influence, anti-EU sentiment in France is likely to grow. To the east, Russia may be in decline, but it sees the shifts in Europe’s balance of power as an opportunity to reassert its influence in central and eastern areas of the continent and this could lead to a standoff with many of Europe’s leading powers. What is certain is that, without greater unity, Europe’s declining voice in the world will continue to weaken as the relative power of individual European states will continue to decline vis-à-vis rivals such as the United States and China.