ISA Ukraine Conflict Update - 21st of March 2022

Daily Summary

Much of the heaviest fighting in the war in Ukraine has been focused on the Russia siege of the port city of Mariupol, the last territory on the Sea of Azov coast still under Ukrainian control. Here, Russian forces have slowly fought their way into the center of that city, where more than 90% of its buildings have now been destroyed. Worse, there are an estimated 300,000 people still trapped in Mariupol with little food, water or medicine and under constant shelling.

As the Russians’ main offensive in the direction of Kyiv has stalled, they have begun to set up defensive positions around the Ukrainian capital, indicating that they are prepared for a long siege of the city. Russian forces have carried out limited attacks in recent days both to the west and the east of Kyiv, but these were repulsed by Ukrainian forces.

In the east of Ukraine, Russian forces have been able to connect the front lines in the regions around Kharkiv and Luhansk. As a result, the Russians now hold a contiguous front line running in an arc from the west of Kyiv, around eastern Ukraine and down to the area to the northwest of the Crimean Peninsula.

As weapons and other supplies used by the Ukrainian armed forces are gathered and stored in western parts of the country, it is likely that Russia will step up its air and missile attacks on that part of Ukraine. Nevertheless, arms shipments to Ukraine are likely to increase in the coming weeks, making supply lines from this region to the front line critical in this conflict.

What to Watch

The Rasputitsa: With the arrival of spring in Ukraine, much of the country’s terrain is turning to mud. This is forcing Russian armored forces to remain on Ukraine’s main roads, limiting their ability to carry out offensives and making it easier for the defenders to target Russia’s supply lines.

Ukrainian Supply Lines: As Russian hopes for a quick victory in Ukraine have faded, the Russian government is preparing for a long conflict. This includes an increase in mobilization efforts, including the deployment of 17- and 18-year-olds as well as plans to bring in groups of foreign fighters.