Elections to Watch in 2016

While 2014 was the year in which more people around the world went to the polls to vote in national elections than at any time in history, and while 2015 saw elections take place in a number of key countries around the world, 2016 is shaping up to be a relatively quiet year in terms of major national elections (with one notable exception).  Altogether, around 50 national elections are scheduled to take place next year, with many of these elections taking place in smaller emerging markets.  Moreover, a number of 2016’s national elections will take place in volatile countries where the threat of high levels of violence surrounding these elections will be significant.  Of course, there is also the matter of the 2016 presidential and congressional elections in the United States next November. 

Africa: Almost half of the national elections scheduled for 2016 will take place in Africa, and while this indicates that democracy is slowly taking root in a number of countries in that region, the fact remains that few of these elections will be competitive.  Moreover, a number of national elections in Africa in 2016 will be accompanied by the threat of widespread violence, most notably the national elections in the Central African Republic, Somalia and in both of the Congos.  Two of the elections in Africa in 2016 that could prove to be highly competitive are the presidential and parliamentary elections in Uganda in February and those in Ghana in December.  These are two countries that have recorded very high rates over economic growth over the past decade and while Uganda does not have a history of peaceful transfers of power, Ghana does, and the governments in both countries have lost much support in recent years, giving the political opposition hope for victory.

Asia-Pacific: In the Asia-Pacific region, four national elections are worth watching in 2016.  First, Taiwan will go to the polls for presidential and parliamentary elections, with the opposition DPP party favored to win in both elections on a platform of slowing Taiwan’s reconciliation and reconnection with Mainland China.  In April, parliamentary elections will take place in South Korea, with the government there having lost much support in recent months.  In May, the Philippines will hold presidential and parliamentary elections, with the presidential election there wide open as no single candidate commands more than 30% of the vote in pre-election polls.  Finally, Australians will go to the polls to elect a new parliament sometime in late 2016, with the opposition Labor Party in a strong position to regain power in a country where there have been four prime ministers in the past two years. 

Europe: In Europe, a number of national elections will take place in smaller countries in the region in 2016, including elections in Slovakia, Ireland, Macedonia, Georgia, Lithuania and Montenegro.  In Eastern Europe, two larger elections will take place next year.  First, parliamentary elections will take place in Russia, the first national elections in that country since it fell into a deep recession in the wake of falling oil prices and after economic sanctions were placed on Russia in the wake of the war in Ukraine.  Later in the year, Romania will hold parliamentary elections amid rising levels of political turmoil in that country.  In both cases, corruption will be a major issue in these elections. 

The Americas: Finally, three significant elections will take place in the Americas.  First, Peruvian voters will elect a new president and parliament in April, with no single candidate yet emerging as a favorite to be that country’s next president.  In May, the Dominican Republic will hold presidential and parliamentary elections amid rising tensions between that country and its neighbor, Haiti.  Finally, the long-awaited 2016 presidential and congressional elections will take place in the United States, with the race for the Republican Party’s nomination likely to dominate the headlines well into the summer, as there is a growing chance that the party may enter next summer’s convention in Cleveland without yet having decided on a candidate.  As always, the convoluted and dreadfully-expensive election process in the United States is the most exciting thing going in terms of elections around the world and 2016 is shaping up to be one of the most exciting election seasons in the US in recent years.