ISA Coronavirus Update (14th of April)

Daily Summary

The number of known cases of the coronavirus (Covid-19) around the world approached the symbolic two million mark, while the number of fatalities connected to the pandemic surpassed 120,000 (an increase of 60% from the number of fatalities seven days ago).

It is estimated that, for the first time, more than half of the world’s population is now under some form of government-imposed lockdown as a result of the coronavirus crisis.

Some European countries have begun to gradually lift some elements of the lockdowns that were put in place last month.  For example, Spain is allowing some non-essential personnel to return to work, while Italy and Austria are reopening a few categories of shops.  In Denmark, some children below the age of eleven are being allowed to return to school.

A new study carried out by a consortium of Brazilian universities and research institutes found that the actual number of cases of the coronavirus in that country was likely to be 12 times higher than the official number.  This consortium was highly critical of the lack of testing that has been done in Brazil, as the level of testing in that country is far below that of most other countries with so many cases of the virus.

Key Developments

Soaring Death Rates in Some European Countries: The fatality rate from the coronavirus has now surpassed 10% in six European countries, with the highest rates now found in two states where the fatality rate is soaring (Belgium and the United Kingdom) and one where it has stabilized (Italy).

IMF Debt Relief: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreed to provide debt relief for 25 of the world’s poorest countries covering the next six months.  It is likely that this debt program will be both expanded to more countries and extended for a longer period of time.

Trend to Watch

Large countries with spread out populations such as the United States, Russia and Canada, are likely to see new clusters of the coronavirus arise over a longer period of time due to the dispersed nature of their populations.

The Coming Days

As the winter approaches in the Southern Hemisphere, the coronavirus crisis in South America and other regions in that half of the world is expected to worsen significantly.  Already, the number of cases in those regions is rising sharply.