The Next War in the Caucasus?

The disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh has long been one of the world’s most dangerous flashpoints, one that could not only trigger a war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, but could drag larger powers into a regional conflict.  As such, it is no surprise that heavy fighting recently broke out in this region, pitting the armed forces of Azerbaijan and Armenia against one another and claiming the lives of dozens of soldiers and civilians.  In fact, clashes have routinely broken out in Nagorno-Karabakh in recent years, even though most of the world remains unaware of the danger that this flashpoint poses.  This danger is magnified by the possibility that a full-scale war between Azerbaijan and Armenia could draw in outside powers such as Russia and Turkey, two countries that are already at odds over a number of strategic issues.  As such, the development of the next few weeks will prove pivotal in maintaining stability in the South Caucasus.

The dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh dates from the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, when the ethnic Armenian majority in this region of the newly-independent country of Azerbaijan broke away from that country and declared their independence.  This led to a war between the region’s ethnic Armenians, with the backing of Armenia, and Azerbaijan that resulted in a clear Armenian victory and the secession (not internationally recognized) of Nagorno-Karabakh.  Since then, Armenia has continued to back Nagorno-Karabakh and frequent clashes have erupted along the heavily-armed border between this breakaway region and the rest of Azerbaijan.  This culminated in last week’s clashes that were the most severe in this region in recent years, threatening to usher in a full-scale conflict that both sides have spent the last two decades preparing for. 

For Azerbaijan, the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh in 1994 is a humiliation that it feels must be revenged and this has driven Azerbaijan’s policies in the region over the past two decades.  As the balance of power between these two rivals has shifted against Armenia, calls for Azerbaijan to use force to reclaim its lost territory have grown.  This rise in Azerbaijan’s power is the result of the rapid expansion of the country’s oil and gas industry over the past two decades, which has allowed Azerbaijan’s economic power to pull far ahead of that of Armenia.  This, in turn, has led to a massive surge in defense spending by Azerbaijan in recent years, enabling the country to dramatically shift the military balance of power in the South Caucasus.  As Azerbaijan’s strength has grown, its government has stepped up the pressure on Armenia and it has promised its citizens that it would do everything to regain Nagarno-Karabakh, by force if necessary.

A war between Azerbaijan and Armenia would be a tragedy by itself, but as the countries are located along the dangerous and volatile Caucasus fault line, this dispute has the potential to draw in outside powers that have long battled for control and influence in this region.  First and foremost, Russia has extensive interests in the region, and has close defense ties with Armenia.  As Armenia’s position in the region has weakened, it has moved closer to Moscow in order gain Russian protection against Azeri revanchism.  Meanwhile, Turkey also has extensive interests in the South Caucasus and has close ties with Azerbaijan and a very tense relationship with its Armenian neighbor.  Recently, Turkey has given its full backing to Azerbaijan in its dispute with Armenia.  Given the fact that Russo-Turkish relations have deteriorated so dramatically in recent months, the fact that these two powers are now on opposite sides in the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute means that the potential for a proxy war between them has increased.  With Turkey viewing Russia’s involvement in Syria’s civil war as an incursion into its sphere of influence, Ankara views the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute as an opportunity to return the favor to Russia.  As such, the potential for a major conflict in this region is much higher, and much more dangerous, than many people think.