Important Elections in Mexico and Turkey

Two of the world’s most important emerging markets, Mexico and Turkey, will hold national elections this weekend and both of these elections will go a long way towards determining the pace of political and economic reform in both countries.  Both Mexico and Turkey have suffered from higher degrees of political unrest in recent years, with Mexico struggling to bring an end to its drug wars and Turkey facing a myriad of challenges along its borders.  For both countries to be able to increase their security and achieve higher levels of economic growth, political stability is key and these upcoming elections were help to determine which direction both countries go in the coming years.

This weekend, Mexico will hold elections for the lower house of its legislature, nine state governors, 17 state legislatures and 300 mayors.  As this serves as Mexico’s mid-term elections, they will be a referendum on the reforms that have been enacted by President Enrique Pena Nieto over the past three years.  Despite the fact that these reforms have, thus far, failed to significantly increase economic growth in Mexico, it is somewhat of a surprise that President Pena Nieto’s PRI party is leading in the polls ahead of this week’s elections.  Meanwhile, independent candidates will be able to run for office in these elections for the first time, thanks to some of the political reforms enacted by the current administration in Mexico.  One key issue to watch will be the threat of violence, particularly in western Mexican states such as Guerrero, as already, many people have been killed in election-related violence in recent weeks.

Parliamentary elections will also take place this weekend in Turkey and these elections will go a long way towards shaping the overall political system in Turkey.  This is due to the fact that Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is seeking to win a two-thirds majority in the parliament in order to have the power to amend the country’s constitution.  If it wins this two-thirds majority, the AKP intends to strengthen the powers of the presidency in Turkey, allowing President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to further strengthen his grip on political power in that country.  However, recent polls have shown that, while the AKP will clearly retain its position as the largest party in the parliament, its hopes for winning a two-thirds majority have dimmed as its support levels have waned in recent months.  This is due to concerns over President Erdogan’s increasingly autocratic leadership as well as the ongoing economic slump in Turkey. 

Once these two important elections are concluded, there will be almost no national elections of note in the coming months, with the exception of parliamentary elections in Denmark and, possibly, presidential elections in Burundi.  Only in the final three months of this year will there be another cluster of highly relevant national elections.  Three of the most important elections in late 2015 take place in the Americas, with national elections taking place in Canada, Argentina and Venezuela.  Two important national elections will also take place in Europe later this year, as two of continental Europe’s fastest-growing economies (Poland and Spain) go to the polls for parliamentary elections.  While 2015 is a far cry from 2014, when a record number of voters went to the polls around the world, there are still a number of interesting and impactful elections to monitor over the remainder of this year.