Netanyahu Wins Israel's Election

In a surprising result, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing Likud Party won a clear victory in Israel’s parliamentary elections.  In the weeks before the election, nearly all of the polls taken in Israel had suggested that the center-left Zionist Union alliance, led by Yitzhak Herzog and Tzipi Livni, would win the largest share of the vote in these elections.  However, a late campaigning blitz by Prime Minister Netanyahu resulted in a surge of support for the Likud Party, putting it in a strong position to once again lead a new coalition government in Israel.  Nevertheless, the process of forming a new coalition government is likely to be difficult, given the increasingly fractious nature of Israeli politics.

In these early parliamentary elections, the Likud Party won 30 of 120 seats in Knesset, far more than pre-election polls had suggested.  Meanwhile, the Zionist Union did as well as the pre-election polls had predicted, winning 24 seats in the Knesset.  In third position was the Arab Joint List, an alliance of mostly Arab-Israeli parties that has vowed not to take part in any new coalition government in Israel, with 13 seats.  As a result, the top two parties will seek to form a coalition government with the seven other political parties that qualified for representation in the Knesset, a process that could prove to be very difficult, given the personal animosities between the leaders of many of Israel’s main political parties and the disparate interests of the parties.

A number of political parties emerged from these elections as potential kingmakers.  First, the Yesh Atid party led by Prime Minister Netanyahu’s former ally, Yair Lapid, won 11 seats in the Knesset and has indicated that it would like to join a Zionist Union-led alliance.  The next party in line is the new Kulanu party, which won ten seats in the Knesset.  Kulanu has focused its campaign in cost-of-living issues and will be heavily courted by both of Israel’s top two parties.  Even with these two parties, neither of Israel’s leading two parties will be able to form a majority coalition in the Knesset, meaning that they will have to join forces with one or more of the nationalist or religious parties that qualified for seats in the Knesset.  As such, this favors a Likud-led coalition government, as these smaller nationalist and religious parties would be more agreeable for a Netanyahu-led government than a Herzog-led government.  Nevertheless, the leaders of many of these potential kingmaker parties hold personal grudges against Prime Minister Netanyahu and this could stifle efforts to form a new Likud-led government.  As such, the potential for a very fractious coalition government is a possibility, as is the potential for a hung parliament.