24 January 2017

President Trump and America

Now that Donald Trump is the president of the United States, attention is turning to how the volatile new president will impact the world’s leading power.  Among liberals in the US, there are fears that President Trump will halt or reverse much of what they view as political, economic, social and environmental progress in the United States.  Even many conservatives are fearful that, despite the fact that his administration leans strongly to the right, President Trump might prove to be much less conservative than they hoped for.  Meanwhile, many other groups within the government and other public sectors in the US are worried about their ability to work with the new US president, as few sectors escaped his scorn in recent years.  What is certain is that the new president represents a sea-change in American politics that will reverberate around the world for years to come.

In terms of the economy, President Trump has already taken a number of direct and indirect steps designed to change the direction and the structure of the world’s largest economy.  For example, the first executive order issued by President Trump was to order the government to begin the process of dismantling the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) before a replacement plan is even in place.  In addition, the new president has backed up his promise to impose a number of measures designed to protect that US economy, and US jobs, from foreign competition.  This included his decision to withdraw the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal and to begin the process of renegotiating the NAFTA free trade deal with Canada and Mexico.  Furthermore, President Trump has continued to threaten to impose tariffs and other punitive measures on companies that invest in Mexico in order to produce goods destined for the United States.  Indirectly, President Trump’s off-the-cuff comments in recent days have rattled the markets around the world and raised economic risk levels in a number of countries, particularly those that are dependent on international trade and foreign investment.

On the political and environmental front, President Trump has also had a massive impact during his first few days in office.  Among the executive orders signed by President Trump was one that imposed a hiring freeze on many sectors of the government, his first step towards reducing the size of the government.  In addition, he signed an executive order approving the construction of the Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipelines, despite strenuous opposition from environmental and local groups.  Meanwhile, much of President Trump’s attention has remained focused on his war with many of the “mainstream” media outlets in the United States, suggesting that the relationship between the White House and the media is likely to be very difficult over the next four years.

The first few days of the Trump presidency have raised as many new questions as they have answered, and there has never been a start to a presidency in the US quite like this one.  One key question that remains to be answered is how well President Trump will work with the Republican-led Congress, as many leading members of Congress have been highly critical of the president, including a number of high-profile Republicans.  Likewise, President Trump’s relationship with the leading intelligence agencies in the US appears likely to also be difficult, as the president has continued to criticize these organizations since taking office. 

With such contentious relations between the Trump Administration on one side, and the Congress, the intelligence agencies and the media on the other, the level of political in-fighting in the United States could soar to new heights in the months and years ahead.  At a time of global turmoil, this change in the nature of US politics is a very unwelcome development.