ISA Coronavirus Update (2nd of July)

Daily Summary

An all-time high of nearly 197,000 cases of the coronavirus were diagnosed around the world yesterday, bringing the total number of cases to 10.8 million. Meanwhile, the number of fatalities associated with this pandemic rose to 519,000.

Latin America remained the focal point of the coronavirus pandemic in recent weeks, as no other region in the world recorded more new cases of the virus.  The total number of cases of the coronavirus in Latin America now stands at 2.7 million, with the total number of fatalities in the region now reaching more than 119,000.

The number of new cases of the coronavirus found in the United States reached a daily record-high of more than 51,000 yesterday, with southern states such as Texas, Florida and Georgia, and western states such as California and Arizona, leading the way.

Iran’s official death toll from the coronavirus pandemic stands at just below 11,000, but a recent study suggests that the actual death toll in that country might be five times higher.

Elsewhere in the Middle East, the number of coronavirus cases is soaring, although the actual number of cases is unknown due to a relative lack of testing. Some of the hardest hit areas are those that can least deal with such as pandemic, such as Yemen and the West Bank.

Key Developments

Global Trade Collapse: Between 2012 and 2019, global trade grew by less than 2% per year. This year, global trade is forecast to shrink by more than 25%. However, while a recovery is expected in 2021, global trade levels could remain well below trend for the rest of the decade.

Low Fatality Rate in the United States: While the United States is failing to slow the spread of the coronavirus in many areas of that country, it is succeeding in reducing the fatality rate from the virus. The US now has one of the lowest fatality rates in the West, with a rate that is less than half of Europe’s.

Trend to Watch

While the European Union is opening its borders to travelers from some non-EU countries, the region’s tourism sector is forecast to suffer massive losses this year. This is bad news for EU members that rely heavily on tourism to generate economic growth.

The Coming Days

The soaring number of cases of the coronavirus in places such as Texas, southern California, Melbourne, Delhi and elsewhere could push healthcare facilities and workers in those areas to the brink, despite increases in capacity in recent months.