Populism: Here to Stay or a Passing Fad?

In recent years, populist political leaders and parties on both the political right and left have been gaining support, raising concerns that populism is here to stay.  This year alone, two relatively shocking events have occurred (the decision by British voters to withdraw from the European Union and the election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States) that have seemingly confirmed that support for populist movements is at its highest level in decades.  Moreover, nationalism, a strong populist feeling, is on the rise in many leading powers such as China and Russia, as less-than-democratic governments use populist platforms to bolster their support.  As such, many experts believe that populist sentiment will remain high around the world for the foreseeable future.  Is the continue rise of populism inevitable? 

The rise in support for right-wing and left-wing populist political leaders and parties has been most notable in recent years in the West, first in Europe and now in the United States.  After the defeat of Nazi Germany in the Second World War, right-wing populism faded from the mainstream in the West, and a few decades later, left-wing populism also faded with the collapse of communism in central and eastern Europe. 

However, populism began to resurface in many smaller European countries in the late 1990s and, in recent years, has spread to larger countries in Europe.  In France, the National Front has emerged as a very powerful force on France’s political right, while support for far-left parties also remains strong.  In Italy, populists such as Silvio Berlusconi and parties such as the Five Star Movement have been major players in Italian politics for a long time now.  In Spain, separatist movements in many areas of the country retain high levels of support, while the far-left Podemos party has become a major force there.  

One country that seemed to have avoided the surge in support for populist policies found elsewhere in Europe, the United Kingdom, shocked many observers when its voters chose to withdraw the UK from the European Union earlier this year.  Another such country, Germany, has also seen a rise in support for parties on the far-right (the AfD) and on the far-left (The Left) in recent years. 

Finally, in a sign that populism has taken hold throughout the West, Donald Trump ran for the presidency of the United States on a highly-populist platform that almost no one gave a chance to be successful.  However, Trump confounded his doubters when he won the nomination of the Republican Party thanks to deep divisions with that party.  Then, facing an unpopular Democratic opponent, Trump shocked the world by winning the world’s most powerful position by running on this populist platform that included hostility to international trade, immigration and foreign military alliances.  Now, it is likely that the fact that a populist leads the leading country in the West is likely to have a major impact throughout the world and could legitimize populist movements in other areas of the world.

For those who believe that populism is here to stay as a leading political force in the West and around the world, there are a number of factors that support their argument.  First and foremost, a number of long-term economic trends suggest that the issues that have allowed populism to flourish in recent years will remain in place.  For example, the sluggish economic growth in the West and in many other leading economies around the world that has been in place for some time now is forecast to remain in place in the coming years as global economic growth levels fail to return to pre-financial-crisis levels.  Likewise, the rising level of wealth inequality that has been a major driver of populism in many countries also appears unlikely to disappear anytime soon.  Finally, the disappearance of low-skilled manufacturing jobs from more developed economies will not stop, leaving a large segment of the labor force unable to find suitable employment, raising anger levels among lower-skilled workers, a key segment of voters that have propelled the rise of populist politicians and parties in recent years. 

Outside of the economic factors that are driving populism around the world, a number of other factors suggest that support for right-wing and left-wing populists will not diminish anytime soon.  For example, the potential for more mass waves of migration from poorer and less stable countries to more developed countries will continue to rise in the years ahead and this will keep the issue of immigration at the forefront of the political discussion in the West and elsewhere.  Likewise, the threat of terrorism and other such security-related issues will also play into the hands of populist movements and provide them with a major vote-winning platform for the foreseeable future. 

Meanwhile, the major changes in the ways in which voters have access to news and information has played into the hands of populists, as today, more and more voters are able to access news tailored to their positions, interests and prejudices.  On the right, this has fueled nationalism, resulting in more people blaming outside forces for their own personal struggles or the woes befalling their country.  On the left, this has fueled the belief that a faceless elite is rigging their country’s economic, political and social systems against the common person.  This has effectively reduced the size of the centrist electorate in many countries, fuelling the rise of right-wing and left-wing populism.

Some experts believe that populist movements will peak with the election of Donald Trump in the United States and that gradually, support for more centrist political and economic positions will increase.  Moreover, a number of factors suggest that, while populism is undoubtedly a threat to the democratic systems of the West and around the world, its threat is being over-estimated.  Clearly, this is not 1920s and 1930s Europe, were communism and fascism spread throughout the region, thanks in large part to the dislocations caused by the First World War and the Great Depression.  Today, the democratic systems in place in the West are far stronger and more entrenched than their counterparts in inter-war Europe and anyone who knows well the Weimar Republic government of Germany would not compare the modern-day governments of countries such as the United States or France with Weimer Germany.  Likewise, strong centrist tendencies remain in place in most developed countries, driven by higher living standards in these countries. 

Nevertheless, vigilance is required as today’s relatively mild forms of populism could yet evolve into something much more disconcerting, particularly if the global economy falls into another deep slump or if a new wave of large-scale terrorist attacks hit the world’s more powerful countries.  While democracy is not yet at risk, it is imperative that governments around the world do more to boost their support, lest right-wing and left-wing populists do even more to undermine the legitimacy of their countries’ democracies.