Is a G2-Dominated World Inevitable?
For the past 25 years, the United States has been in a position of dominance according to most measures global power. The fall of the Soviet Union and the weakness of potential rivals meant that the United States enjoyed a massive lead in terms of economic, military, technological, cultural and other forms of power, even if it did not always exercise its power prudently. While some rival powers were able to challenge the US’ lead in individual categories of power (Europe and Japan in terms of economic power and Russia in terms of military power), the US’ overall lead was unchallenged. Now, the rising power of China is providing the United States with the most serious challenge to its global leadership position that it has faced since the US emerged as the world’s unquestioned leading power in the wake of the Second World War. China’s rise has been so impressive that many experts now believe that the 21st century will be dominated by the two countries that are sometimes referred to as the G2.
In terms of the global balance of power, there is little doubt that the United States and China are first and second in nearly any power ranking. By most measures of power, the United States remains the global leader, thanks to its massive and wealthy economy, its domination of most high-tech industries and its huge lead in terms of military power-projection capabilities. Moreover, unlike most other developed economies, the United States still has much potential for growth and expansion, enabling it to continue to expand its power in the coming decades. Meanwhile, more than three decades of 10% annual economic growth rates have allowed China to begin bearing the fruits of its massive size. Now, China is in the process of overtaking the United States in terms of many quantitative measures of power, such as economic output. Even as China’s economy is slowing, its growth rates will exceed that of most other large economies, enabling Chinese power to continue to grow relative to its rivals. As such, it appears that a G2-dominated world is here to stay for the next few decades.
If a G2-dominated world is to be prevented, another power must significantly increase its levels of power in order to challenge the United States and China. However, it is very unclear as to which power will be in a position to do just that. Currently, Russia has emerged as the state making the biggest push to be considered a global power, and while it is easily the largest country in terms of land, it is hampered by a very weak economy and a very poor demographic situation. The European Union can make a strong claim to being a global economic power, but its increasing lack of cohesion, its declining military power and its aging population mean that the EU has consistently failed to emerge as a serious global player outside of the economic field. Over the longer-term, India has the biggest chance to emerge as a rival to the G2 thanks to its soaring population, but it must overcome a number of challenges such as its lack of land and resources, as well as the deep internal divisions within India. As for other powers, none appears likely to be in a position to stake a claim to becoming a global power at any time in the coming decades.
The last time there were two states that were unquestionably much more powerful than any of their rivals was in the decades following the Second World War. Then, an intense rivalry developed between the two superpowers, leading to a Cold War in which much of the world lined up behind either the United States or the Soviet Union. Now, with the US and China set to dominate the world for a prolonged period of time, there are fears that a new Cold War could emerge, this time with its epicenter in Asia. Already, the United States has lined up numerous allies to help offset rising Chinese power in Asia, whereas China has struggled to find allies (apart from an increasingly-isolated Russia). These developments bode ill for the level of trust and cooperation between the world’s two dominant powers and, with the two countries on rival sides in a number of flashpoints in Asia, the potential for an escalation in tensions between the US and China will likely rise. As this is the 21st century’s most important bilateral relationship, it is imperative that the US and China avoid falling into a direct conflict between the two countries, something the US and USSR were barely able to achieve during the original Cold War. If the US and China can work together to face the challenges facing both countries, the chances for peace and prosperity in the 21st century will receive a major boost.