12 May 2020

ISA Coronavirus Update (12th of May)

Daily Summary

The number of new cases of Covid-19 that are being diagnosed daily continued to rise by an average of 87,000 per day in recent days.  There have been nearly 4.3 million cases of Covid-19 diagnosed around the world, with more than 287,000 deaths now being attributed to the virus.

The number of new cases of Covid-19 being diagnosed in Europe continued to decline, raising hopes that the first wave of the pandemic in that region was close to coming to an end.  The lifting of some lockdown measures in Europe will test this theory in the coming days and weeks.

The number of Covid-19 cases in South America has continued to rise sharply in recent days, with the total number of cases in that region now standing at more than 320,000.  Furthermore, more than 17,000 people have died as a result of the virus, with the actual number of deaths in the region linked to Covid-19 likely being much higher.

The number of cases of Covid-19 in India has continued to trend upwards in recent days.  While the official number of cases in India now stands at more than 71,000, the actual number of cases in that country is probably much larger, as very little testing has been done thus far.  The official death toll from this outbreak in India now stands at more than 6,700.

 

Key Developments

Asian Concerns: More than 100 new cases of Covid-19 that have been discovered in South Korea’s capital, Seoul, have been linked to nightclubs in that city.  Meanwhile, six new cases were discovered in Wuhan this week, the Chinese city at the epicenter of the pandemic.

The Automotive Industry Tries to Recover: After unprecedented declines in automotive sales over the past two months, the global automotive industry is attempting to revive itself by re-opening factories in many parts of the world.  However, it remains to be seen if demand will bounce back quickly.

 

Trend to Watch

All economic data to released by large economies in recent days suggest that the decline in economic output in the second quarter of this year will be even larger than initially feared.  As a result, the global economy could shrink by more than 3% this year.

 

The Coming Days

Religious groups are at the forefront of many of the protests calling for an easing of restrictions on public gatherings in countries ranging from the United States to Iran.  Religious gatherings were at the center of many early Covid-19 hotspots.