A Turkish-Iranian Alliance?
Turkey and Iran have rarely been friends. Then again, these two countries have also rarely been enemies, at least in modern times. In fact, while the two sides have often been on opposite sides in regional disputes, they have also largely avoided antagonizing one another. Sure, both Turkey and Iran have been competing for influence in the Middle East and Central Asia for centuries and, in recent years, have found themselves backing rival forces in Syria’s long-running civil war. Turkey is even a key member of NATO, the military alliance led by Iran’s mortal enemy, the United States.
However, recent developments have started to change the bilateral relationship between these two countries and have brought them closer together on many issues. In fact, these developments are leading to the possibility that a Turkish-Iranian alliance may be forming, one that could transform that balance of power in the entire Middle East.
Over the past year, the changing political scene in the Middle East has pushed the positions and interests of Turkey and Iran more closely together. For example, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has fallen out with the two countries that Iran sees as the greatest threats to its interests in the Middle East, the United States and Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, Turkey and Iran have emerged as the leading supporters of Qatar as that country faces an embargo from a Saudi-led coalition of Arab countries.
In Iraq, both countries have vociferously opposed the recent referendum on independence for the Kurdish-populated areas of northern Iraq. As these events have led to a closer alignment of Turkish and Iranian interests, the two countries have move to significantly strengthen their diplomatic and defensive ties in recent months. Moreover, both countries are interested in enhancing their bilateral economic relationship as well.
Unlike in previous decades, Turkey and Iran now share many common positions with regards to the politics and security of the Middle East and the wider world. One example of this is the strong opposition from Turkey and Iran to Saudi Arabia’s efforts to assume the mantle of leadership for a coalition of largely Sunni Muslim states stretching from North Africa to Southeast Asia. Another example is their shared determination to prevent the formation of independent Kurdish states in northern Iraq or Syria, mindful of their own Kurdish minorities and their political ambitions.
In recent years, it has been their backing of opposite sides in Syria’s civil war that has kept relations between Turkey and Iran from improving. However, Turkey appears to have accepted the fact that the Assad regime is likely to remain in power in Damascus, and Iran has become more inclined to respect Turkish interests in Syria. At the same time, Iran clearly welcomes the fact that ties between Turkey on one side and the United States and Europe on the other, are fraying, a development that could lead to a permanent break between Turkey and the West.
Turkey is clearly in the process of dramatically realigning its foreign relations, weakening ties with former allies while embracing closer ties with long-time rivals. A good example of this is the recent strengthening of ties between Turkey and Russia, a bilateral relationship that has endured countless wars and long-running fears over the two countries’ ambitions in the Black Sea and Caucasus regions. It even appears that Turkey grudgingly accepts the fact that Russia and Iran are working closely together to keep the Assad regime in power in Syria, and may even begin to work together with those two countries to bring an end to the conflict there.
As for Iran, it had feared being overwhelmed by the power of the new Sunni alliance led by Saudi Arabia, as Iran had few, if any, powerful allies. Worse, the Trump Administration has clearly put the power of the United States behind the Saudi-led alliance and has increased the pressure on Iran since it took office earlier this year. Now, Iran finds itself with potential allies of its own, including Turkey.
A Turkish-Iranian alliance, backed by Russia, would help to shift the balance of power in the Middle East in their favor and might be able to prevent Saudi Arabia from amassing enough powerful allies that are capable of dominating the entire region. Should these two alliances (Saudi Arabia’s one side and the Turkish-Iranian one on the other) continue to coalesce, there is a real possibility of a new Cold War, this one in the Middle East. Therefore, the relationship between Turkey and Iran will be closely watched in the coming months to see if these two countries continue to move closer together.