Nigeria's Landmark Election

In what may prove to be one of the most important elections in the history of Africa, Nigerian voters, for the first time, ousted an incumbent president at the ballot box.  In the end, the opposition candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, defeated the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan by a margin of 54.4% to 45.6%.  For President-elect Buhari, this was the fourth presidential election in a row that he had contested, but unlike his defeats in each of the three previous elections, this time, a number of factors were in his favor.  Now, Nigeria’s new president will find himself facing some of the most serious challenges that Africa’s most-populous country has ever faced.

A number of factors combined to bring an end to the presidency of Goodluck Jonathan.  First and foremost, his government’s inability to bring an end to the Boko Haram insurgency in northeastern Nigeria cost the president much of his support, as evidenced by Mr. Buhari’s huge margins of victory in the states of northeastern Nigeria.  Second, the once-dominant PDP party suffered a number of high-profile defections in the months before the election, whereas the once fractious political opposition united around Mr. Buhari and the All Progressives Congress (APC) party.  Third, the sharp fall in oil prices in recent months has had a major impact on Nigeria’s economy and forced the government to make a number of cuts in public spending before the election.  Finally, the widespread electoral fraud that plagued previous elections in Nigeria was significantly reduced this time around, allowing for the freest and fairest presidential election in the country’s history.

This apparent peaceful change of power is likely to have widespread ramifications, both for Nigeria and the region.  First, it may serve to reduce the north-south, Christian-Muslim tensions that were worsened when President Jonathan ran for re-election back in 2011, ending a system whereby the PDP party alternated its candidates for the presidency between northern and southern candidates.  Second, the election of Muhammadu Buhari is likely to signal a greater effort by Nigeria’s armed forces to defeat the Boko Haram insurgency in northeastern Nigeria.  Meanwhile, as the most-populous country in Africa, Nigeria’s peaceful transition of power will send a powerful message to the rest of the region, scaring many long-time presidents in the region that are bent on staying in power indefinitely.  Altogether, this election result is a very positive sign for democracy in Nigeria and across Africa.