ISA Coronavirus Update (8th of June)

Daily Summary

The number of coronavirus (Covid-19) cases around the world surpassed the seven million mark last weekend and now stands at more than 7.1 million.  Meanwhile, the number of fatalities linked to the pandemic is now more than 406,000.

The number of cases and fatalities from the coronavirus in Brazil continued to soar in recent days, rising more than that of any other country in the world during this period.  Meanwhile, all of the data related to the coronavirus pandemic was removed from the Brazilian Health Ministry’s official website as criticism of the Brazilian government’s handling of the pandemic continued to intensify.

The number of cases of the coronavirus on the Arabian Peninsula has continued to rise sharply in recent weeks, with the total number of cases for the peninsula now standing at more than 275,000.  Saudi Arabia (102,000 cases), Qatar (69,000 cases), the UAE (39,000 cases) and Kuwait (32,000 cases) have the most official cases in that region.  However, the actual number of cases in Yemen is believed to be quite high, although very little testing has been done there so far.

South Asia was another region where the number of coronavirus cases continued to rise sharply.  Furthermore, there are fears that the coming monsoon season will make matters much worse in that region in the coming months.

Key Developments

Another Economic Forecast Revision: We have revised our forecast for global economic growth in 2020 down to -3.5% as it is becoming apparent that many areas of the world will suffer severe downturns this year. Downwards revisions were made in Europe, India and Latin America in recent days.

China’s Soaring Trade Surplus: China recorded its largest-ever trade surplus last month ($62.9 billion).  Exports declined by only 3.3% year-on-year last month, a much smaller decline than expected.  However, imports into China declined by a much larger-than-expected 16.7% year-on-year in May.

Trend to Watch

New York City and its surroundings, perhaps the hardest hit region in the world by this pandemic, will begin the process of reopening many businesses and workplaces in the coming days.  Nearly 500,000 cases of the virus have been found in this region alone.