Saudi-Iranian Tensions Could Lead to War

Saudi Arabia’s execution of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, that country’s leading Shiite cleric, triggered a dramatic rise in tensions between the leader of the Middle East’s Sunni Muslims (Saudi Arabia) and the leader of the world’s Shiite Muslims (Iran).  Already, tensions between these two countries were dangerously high as a result of the fact that they are on opposite sides of the religion-fuelled conflicts in places such as Iraq, Syria and Yemen.  Adding to these tensions in recent years has been Iran’s efforts to develop a nuclear program, which led to last year’s deal between Iran and the international community regarding its nuclear activities (a deal condemned by the Saudis).  Now, as tensions have reached their highest level in recent years, there is a growing possibility of an outright conflict between Saudi Arabia and its Sunni allies on one side and Iran and its Shiite partners on the other, a development that has the potential to destabilize the region and the world.

Saudi Arabia’s decision to execute the leading cleric among the Shiite minority that inhabits eastern Saudi Arabia was the catalyst for a series of events that have dramatically raised between that country and Iran.  First, the execution of Sheikh Nimr led to major protests in Shiite-populated areas of eastern Saudi Arabia, a region that is already dealing with high levels of instability.  Shortly thereafter, Iran condemned the sheikh’s execution and warned Saudi Arabia that it faced “divine retribution” for this execution.  In scenes reminiscent of the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, protestors stormed the Saudi Arabian embassy in Tehran, burning much of it and forcing Saudi diplomats to flee the country.  In response, Saudi Arabia (and later some of its Sunni allies) broke off diplomatic relations with Iran and expelled all Iranian diplomatic personnel from their countries.

This dramatic increase in tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran is leading to other countries in the region lining up to take sides behind one of these two countries.  For example, the governments of the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan quickly followed Riyadh’s lead and broke off diplomatic ties with Iran.  Moreover, Saudi Arabia’s allies fighting in the civil wars in Syria and Yemen have already expressed their support for its stance against Iran.  On the opposite side, Iran’s allies, such as the governments of Syria and Iraq, as well as the Houthi rebels in Yemen, will certainly move to back Tehran in its showdown with the Saudis.  Meanwhile, a major factor to watch will be the role of outside players in this dispute.  For example, the United States and its European allies have moved to improve relations with Iran in recent months, but this could be jeopardized by this new dispute.  Another outside power, Russia, has found itself allied with Iran in Syria’s civil war and it may move to support Iran in its showdown with Saudi Arabia, once again placing the US and its Western allies in opposition to Russia in a strategic region.

The biggest threat posed by this dispute is the potential for an all-out conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran.  Initially, the biggest threat will be posed by the likelihood that the proxy wars between the two countries in places such as Syria and Yemen will intensify, while Iran may move to promote Shiite insurgencies in places such as Bahrain and Lebanon.  However, the potential for a direct conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran cannot be ruled out, given the fact that both sides are preparing for just such a conflict.  For Saudi Arabia, King Salman and his government have taken a much harder line towards Iran than their predecessors and are dismayed by the presence of an Iran-backed government in Iraq and the fact that Iran is supporting the Assad regime in Syria and the Houthi rebels in Yemen.  For Iran, hardliners that have been challenged by the moderate government of President Hassan Rouhani see a conflict with their leading rival as a means of restoring their dominant position in Iran.  For the international community, a potential conflict between two of the Middle East’s most powerful states is very disconcerting, given the impact that such as conflict would have on that already-volatile region’s stability as well as on the global economy.  For an already nervous world, the Saudi-Iranian showdown is an inauspicious start to 2016.