Iraq and Syria After the Islamic State

While the war against the Islamic State (IS) militant group continues in Iraq and Syria, the conflict has entered a stage where both countries can begin considering their futures after the Islamic State has been defeated.  In recent months, the Islamic State has found itself on the retreat in both Iraq and Syria and now is on the brink of losing the two most important cities under its control, Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria.  Moreover, it has lost a large share of the territory that had been under its control in both countries as it has been under increasing pressure from a variety of enemies, ranging from the armed forces of Iraq and Syria to Sunni and Kurdish militias, not to mention the countries possessing the world’s two most powerful armed forces, the United States and Russia. 

While the Islamic State is now on the brink of defeat, both Iraq and Syria face very uncertain futures.  In Iraq, the defeat of the Islamic State could result in a degree of peace and stability taking hold in that country, although deep internal divisions are likely to maintain a degree of instability in that country.  In Syria, the defeat of the Islamic State will do little to advance the prospects for peace in that country, as civil war will continue to rage across many other areas of Syria, including some areas formerly under the control of the Islamic State.

Iraq: Hopes for Peace 

After 2014’s lightning offensive, the Islamic State gained control of a great deal of territory in Iraq, seizing the vital northern city of Mosul and approaching the outskirts of Baghdad itself.  In 2015 and 2016, with the backing of the unlikely partnership of the United States and Iran, Iraqi government forces, together with Kurdish and Shiite militias, launched a series of counter-offensives against the Islamic State in central and northern Iraq, gradually seizing many of the cities and towns that had been under IS control.  Over the past eight months, Iraqi government forces and their allies have been undertaking offensive operations in and around Mosul and now stand on the brink of completing the liberation of that city from Islamic State control. 

Of course, the liberation of Mosul will not be the end of the Islamic State in Iraq, although it will dramatically reduce the IS’ ability to raise money and recruit fighters for its cause.  Even when the Islamic State is finally driven from all of the territory under its control in Iraq, the country will continue to face many serious problems.  For example, Sunni areas that had been under IS control are wary of the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad and the Shiite militias backing Iraqi armed forces in their conflict with the Islamic State.  Kurds too are wary of Shiite intentions once the Islamic State has been driven from Iraq, having enjoyed a great deal of autonomy from Baghdad in recent years.  Even Iraq’s Shiite majority faces deep internal divisions that could pit rival Shiite movements against one another.  As a result, while the defeat of the Islamic State will bring an end to the immediate threat to stability in Iraq, there are many other potential conflicts that could tear apart this country in the wake of the IS’ defeat.

Syria: No End in Sight

While there is at least a chance for peace in Iraq after the Islamic State is gone, Syria is not so fortunate.  This is due to the fact that the eventual defeat of the Islamic State will do nothing to bring peace to that war-torn country as civil war rages throughout the territory of Syria.  In fact, the defeat of the Islamic State in northern and central Syria could result in a power vacuum in those areas that results in other groups involved in Syria’s civil war battling for control of former IS-held territories.  Over the past year, Syrian government forces have been ascendant in this conflict, thanks to the support of Iran, Russia and Hezbollah.  However, they do not possess the manpower to fully drive the various rebel groups pitted against them from many of the areas of Syria under rebel control. 

As a result, even as government forces slowly gain ground in some areas of the country, they are far from bringing an end to Syria’s civil war.  In fact, there appears to be no end in sight to the Syrian conflict as all sides in the war lack the ability to deliver a knock-out blow to their foes.  Therefore, Syria’s suffering will continue even as the Islamic State is eventually driven from their de facto capital in Raqqa in eastern Syria as well as from other areas of the country.  Moreover, as the country’s civil war continues, even more radical groups could emerge from the rubble of Syria, potentially adding to the instability in the country and its neighbors, including Iraq.  As such, it is clear that the defeat of the Islamic State is just one step in the long effort to bring peace and stability to Iraq and Syria.