ISA Ukraine Conflict Update - 7th of April 2022

Daily Summary

The next major battle in the war in Ukraine is most likely to be fought over the city of Slovyansk which is located in the eastern part of the country. To the north of this city, Russian forces are attempting to push south following their seizure of the city of Izyum. To the south of Slovyansk, Russian forces have so far been thwarted in their efforts to close the southern pincer of their attack in the east. Nevertheless, it appears that this effort will continue, with Slovyansk being the target of both Russia’s northern and southern pincer movements. However, Russia is struggling to bring together the forces needed to carry out this operation.

In the north of Ukraine, Russian forces have been completely withdrawn from the region around Kyiv and Ukrainian forces are now attempting to clear Russian forces from the pocket of territory in the northeast of the country near to the city of Sumy. Those Russian forces that have been withdrawn from northern Ukraine have been sent to Belarus or to Russia to refit in preparation for their expected transfer to the eastern front.

In the south, heavy fighting continues in the port city of Mariupol, where Ukrainian forces continue to staunchly defend parts of that city, despite worsening supply shortages. Mariupol is the last piece of territory in southeastern Ukraine that is still in the hands of Ukrainian armed forces. Russia’s inability to bring this battle to a close has delayed the planned transfer of forces to the eastern front.

What to Watch

A War of Attrition: Russia’s inability to carry out successful lightning strike attacks in the early days of the war has forced Moscow to change tactics. Now, Russian forces are likely to be preparing for a war of attrition in eastern Ukraine, hoping to eventually wear down their opponents.

Odesa Still a Target?: While the war’s focus is on eastern Ukraine, there are fears that Russia could make a new push to seize the southwestern port city of Odesa. This could include the participation of Russian forces that are currently based in the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria.