ISA Risk Alert: The Coronavirus Crisis (9th of April)

Daily Summary

The number of known cases of the coronavirus (Covid-19) around the world surpassed the 1.5 million mark, while the number of fatalities from the virus rose to nearly 90,000.  For the first time in a month, Europe accounted for less than 50% of the total cases around the world.

The scale of the outbreak in and around New York City became apparent as the number of cases of the coronavirus in that area approached the densities seen in hot spots such as Lombardy and Madrid.

The number of new cases of the coronavirus found in Latin America continued to increase at an accelerating pace.  Some of the highest increases were found in Peru and Brazil.  It is expected that the number of cases in Latin America will increase exponentially in the coming weeks.

The growth rate for the number of cases in Central and Eastern Europe continued to increase in recent days, especially in countries such as Russia, Ukraine and Romania.

The coronavirus pandemic is having a major impact on the political process around the world.  In the United States, the pandemic has the potential to disrupt November’s presidential election, which appears now to be a one-on-one race between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.

Key Developments

Easing Restrictions in Europe: A number of European governments have announced plans to slightly ease their restrictions on public gatherings and local travel in the coming weeks, but health experts have warned that this could lead to a renewed increase in the spread of Covid-19.

The WHO Under Fire: The World Health Organization (WHO) came under fire from a number of corners in recent days for its handling of the crisis, in particular, its failure to adequately measure the scale of the outbreak in Wuhan in the early weeks of this crisis.

Trend to Watch

In the United States, United Kingdom and a number of other countries, recent data has shown that people of African descent are much more likely to become critically-ill if they contract Covid-19 than other ethnic groups, for reasons that remain unclear.

The Coming Days

There is increasing evidence that suggests that the spread of Covid-19 will slow to a degree as temperatures warm and its becomes more humid in the Northern Hemisphere.  However, this suggests that a second wave of the outbreak is likely in late 2020.