The World's Most Dangerous Flashpoints in 2018
2017 has been yet another year plagued by conflict and unrest as the conflicts that have raged in recent years nearly all continued to claim lives and destabilize entire countries and regions over the past 12 months. By our count, there were seven full-scale wars that were ongoing in 2017. These conflicts were:
- The Syrian Civil War
- Afghanistan's Civil War
- The Iraqi Civil War
- Somalia's Civil War
- South Sudan's Civil War
- Libya's Civil War
- Yemen's Civil War
At the same time, there were dozens of insurgencies that took place around the world in 2017, with some of the most notable insurgencies including:
- Mexico’s drug war
- The Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria and its neighboring countries
- The conflict in northern Mali
- The conflict in the Central African Republic
- The conflict between Kurdish militias and government forces from Turkey and Iraq
Altogether, it has been estimated that more than 100,000 people have died as a direct result of these conflicts and insurgencies in 2017, with millions of others being impacted, either directly or indirectly.
Unfortunately, 2018 appears to be yet another year in which the lives of millions of people will be impacted by conflict and unrest. While the coming year may see the end of some of the conflicts and insurgencies that have taken place in recent years, there are a number of flashpoints around the world that have the potential to erupt into conflict in 2018. Here are eight flashpoints that could result in skirmishes or a full-scale war in 2018:
North Korea: Pyongyang shows no intention of halting its missile testing and its nuclear weapons program until it has developed the capability of striking its enemies, both near and far, with nuclear weapons. More such testing could result in the United States deciding to launch military strikes against North Korea’s missile and nuclear sites, triggering a devastating conflict on the Korean Peninsula, one that could involve China, Japan and other powers in the region.
Democratic Republic of Congo: President Joseph Kabila’s efforts to hold on to his position could continue in 2018, despite a promise to hold elections late in the year. If he attempts to hold on to power, a full-scale civil war could break out in Congo. The last full scale conflict in that country lasted from 1998 to 2003 and claimed nearly 5.5 million lives, making it the deadliest conflict since the Second World War.
Saudi Arabia-Iran: The world’s leading Sunni and Shiite Muslim countries have become bitter rivals, fighting proxy wars in Yemen and Syria and finding themselves on opposite sites of sectarian disputes across the Middle East. Should a full-scale conflict erupt between the world’s second- and fifth-largest oil producing countries, the global economy could be in for a major shock.
Ukraine: Despite periodic clashes along the front line between Ukrainian government forces and pro-Russian militias in eastern Ukraine, a resumption of that region’s conflict has thus far been avoided. However, as long as part of eastern Ukraine remains in militia hands, the potential for a resumption of the war in that region remains a distinct possibility.
Venezuela: With economic output having declined by nearly 40% in recent years, Venezuela’s economy is in free fall and the living standards of its citizens have deteriorated dramatically. Nevertheless, the country’s hapless President Nicolas Maduro and his Cuban-backed government have desperately attempted to reinforce their grip on power, something that could lead to a civil war in 2018.
South China Sea: Given the size and strength of the countries involved in the maritime dispute in the South China Sea, this body of water could be the world’s most dangerous flashpoint. China has been more assertive in bolstering its claim to the waters of most of the South China Sea in recent years, worrying other countries in that region and forcing the United States to reinforce its naval presence there.
Islamic State Terrorism: While the Islamic State militant group has been driven from nearly all of the territory that it had once controlled in Syria and Iraq, thousands of its fighters have managed to disperse to remote areas of those two countries, or have fled back to their homelands further abroad. This has raised the threat of IS-linked terrorist attacks in places such as Europe, Russia and the Middle East.
Catalonia: Catalonia’s declaration of independence late this year resulted in a strong crackdown on that region’s pro-independence movement by Spain’s national government. If pro-independence sentiment in Catalonia increases, and Spain continues to impose direct rule on that region, the threat of a violent insurgency by more radical segments of the region’s pro-independence movement will increase.