ISA Ukraine Conflict Update - 4th of April 2022

Daily Summary

Russia has nearly completed the withdrawal of all of its invading forces from northern Ukraine. As a result, Ukrainian forces have been able to secure control of all areas to the west, east and north of Kyiv, although there have been scattered clashes between Ukraine’s armed forces and the last remnants of the Russian forces that had controlled those areas since the first days of the invasion.

Russia’s withdrawal from northern Ukraine has coincided with heavier fighting in eastern areas of the country. Here, Russian forces have added to the territory under their control around the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, particularly in region between Luhansk and Kharkiv.

In the south, heavy fighting continues in the devastated port city of Mariupol, with more than 90% of that city’s buildings now reported to have been destroyed. Meanwhile, Russian forces had gained control of more areas between Crimea and Donetsk, widening the strip of land under their control in this region that links eastern Ukraine with Crimea.

Issues to Watch

Refusing to Fight: Russian forces have suffered far greater losses in this war thus far than their leaders had anticipated and this has weighed heavily on the will to fight of many Russian units. In fact, there are numerous reports of Russian soldiers refusing to fight in Ukraine, making it increasingly difficult for Russia to deploy or move forces in Ukraine, or to carry out offensive maneuvers in many areas of the country.

Has Ukraine Survived as a Country?: Russia’s defeat in the Battle of Kyiv has all but assured that Ukraine will survive this conflict as an independent country. The question is now, how much territory will Ukraine lose in the east and south of the country, and will it accept any loss of its pre-war territory.

Russian Forces Move East: Heavy losses and lingering supply issues suggest that relocating forces from northern Ukraine to the eastern front will prove difficult for Russia to achieve in a timely manner. This could hinder Russia’s ability to gain more ground in eastern and southern Ukraine.