What to Expect from US Foreign Policy Under Trump
Much of the world reacted with shock when Donald Trump won a surprising victory in last week’s presidential election in the United States, not just because Hillary Clinton was perceived to be the strong favorite to win this election, but because of the uncertainty that surrounds his soon-to-be presidency. Since then, political and business leaders around the world have begun to move from a sense of shock to a mood of cautious hope that the president-elect of the world’s leading power will not follow through with many of his more controversial campaign promises, particularly those involving the US’ political and economic ties with the rest of the world.
In fact, most world leaders are now preparing to find ways to work together with the new US president. Nevertheless, a great deal of trepidation remains, as a new US president has never taken office with so much uncertainty surrounding his policies and opinions. What is certain is that the United States remains the world’s leading power by a wide margin, so even if the new administration dramatically shifts the political focus of the US inwards, any many change in direction by the new administration will have massive repercussions for the rest of the world.
One area of the world that is watching the political changes in the United States anxiously is Asia, the very region that the US has identified as its region to focus on in the 21st century. Here, the world’s most important bi-lateral relationship, that between the US and China, could experience a great deal of difficulty as President-elect Trump prepares to take office. This is due to the fact that, with the exception of Mexico, no country was more criticized by the president-elect in recent months than China, as he has repeatedly criticized the US’ trade and investment relationship with China. Should an economic standoff between the world’s two largest economies emerge, there will be major ramifications for Asia’s economic and security situation.
Meanwhile, Japan and South Korea are already scrambling to ensure that the United States will maintain a robust military presence in Asia, as President-elect Trump has, in the past, called for a reduction of the US’ defense role in the region. Elsewhere in Asia, the recent strengthening of ties between the US and India could be jeopardized if the new administration in Washington chooses to reduce the US’ presence in Asia, causing much concern in New Delhi.
Another region that received a great deal of attention during the United States’ presidential election campaign was the Middle East, as President-elect Trump made contradictory promises regarding the US’ role in this region. On one, the president-elect vowed to use overwhelming military power to crush the Islamic State militant group, although this process is already underway as the Islamic State loses ground in Syria and Iraq. On the other hand, President-elect Trump repeatedly called for the United States to devote significantly less resources to the Middle East, as decades of US involvement in the region appear to him to have brought little gain to the US.
These contradictory statements have sown uncertainty across the region, as it is unclear how the US will now react to issues such as the growing rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the Israeli-Palestinian standoff, and the civil wars raging in a number of countries in the region. It is likely that President-elect Trump hopes to reduce the US’ exposure to this volatile region, but he will not be the first US president to take office with such hopes.
Perhaps no region expressed more shock at Donald Trump’s election victory than Europe, despite the fact that many European countries have their own versions of the populist president-elect within their own political systems. On the economic front, there is less fear of US policy changes with regards to Europe, as the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) trade deal appears to be dead in the water anyways. However, on the security front, many European countries are terrified that the United States could be on the brink of abandoning its allies in Europe at a time when a resurgent Russia is stirring up trouble across much of Central and East Europe, while Europe’s southern periphery is in chaos.
For one, the US’ president-elect has expressed his admiration of Russian President Vladimir Putin on many occasions, while the Russian president has expressed his belief that the new US president will improve bilateral ties between the two countries. In addition, President-elect Trump has criticized European countries for their over-reliance on the US for their security and defense, raising fears that the US will not support its allies in Europe in a time of crisis. Finally, mainstream political parties across Europe are worried that the victory of a populist such as Donald Trump will lend a degree of legitimacy to populist political leaders and parties across Europe, something recent polls seem to suggest is a legitimate concern.
Another region that is worried about its relations with the United States during the upcoming Trump presidency is Latin America. Most notably, Mexico is seriously concerned about the Trump Administration’s plans to renegotiate the NAFTA free trade deal, while dramatically fortifying the lengthy US-Mexican border. This might be a larger concern in Central America, as it is this region that has provided the bulk of the migrants moving north to the United States in recent years.
Overall, Latin American sentiments towards the US had improved markedly in recent years, helping to weaken the power and influence of the region’s more radical left-wing governments. However, there are now fears that a Trump presidency could cause severe damage to the US’ relations with many Latin American countries, fueling a new wave of anti-US populism in the region.
For many observers outside of the United States, Donald Trump’s victory in what was unquestionably one of the ugliest presidential elections in US history was a sign that the United States is a power in decline. However, it is highly unlikely that four (or eight) years of a Trump presidency will have a major impact on the level of US economic, political or defense power, or its position within the global balance of power. This is due to the fact that a Trump presidency will neither increase nor reduce most of the driving factors of the US’ overall power. However, the new president and much of his administration may hope to return the United States to a position that it held prior a century ago, that of an aloof giant attempting to remain apart from the world’s leading conflict zones, while focusing on internal issues and dominating its own “backyard”.
As such, a Trump Administration is less likely to have the US serving as the world’s policeman, a development that could embolden rising and revisionist powers, such as China in East Asia or Russia in the former Soviet Union. This could lead to a rising threat of a great power conflict should the US find its hand forced by one of these rising or revisionist powers. Quite simply, President-elect Trump is likely to find it very hard to simply withdraw the United States from its crucial role in maintaining the balance of power in different regions around the world, no matter how hard he may try.