ISA Ukraine Conflict Update - 7th of March 2022

Daily Summary

The military situation in Ukraine has remained relatively stable in recent days, with Russian forces regrouping around the cities of Kyiv and Kharkiv after failing to capture Ukraine’s two largest cities in the early days of the conflict. However, the Russians appear to be preparing for a new push on both of those cities, while consolidating their gains in the southern parts of Ukraine.

So far, Russia’s massive military convoy has yet to launch a full-scale attack on Kiev from the northwest, although Russian forces are also approaching the Ukrainian capital from the east. However, these forces have thus far crossed only sparsely-populated and flat territory, but now will be faced with doing battle in an urban environment favoring the defenders.

While Russia’s ground forces have remained relatively static in recent days, the Russians have stepped up their use of artillery and air power to pound Ukrainian positions in and around many of Ukraine’s leading cities. Of course, this has resulted in a major increase in civilian casualties in many parts of the country.

The performance of the armed forces of Russia and Ukraine has surprised many analysts who believed that Ukraine’s armed forces would not be able to resist the scale of the Russian invasion. However, Ukraine’s use or air power, including its use of Turkish drones, and the willingness of Ukrainian soldiers and paramilitaries to fight against the invaders, has stymied Russian plans for a quick victory.

Key Developments

Botched Civilian Evacuations: Earlier attempts to evacuate civilians from a number of Ukrainian cities failed due to alleged Russian shelling of the evacuation routes. Now, Russia has proposed new evacuation plans, but the Ukrainian government has opposed the fact that some routes go to Russia.

The Coming Days: It is expected that Russia’s armed forces will renew their offensives against Kyiv and Kharkiv in the coming days. In the south, there are fears that the Russians will soon launch both land and amphibious assaults against the port city of Odesa.