ISA Ukraine Conflict Update - 19th of May 2022

Daily Summary

In recent days, nearly 800 Ukrainian fighters surrendered to Russian forces in the giant Azovstal steel factory in the southeastern port city of Mariupol. While it is not certain how many Ukrainian fighters remain inside the factory complex, the fact that Russian forces continue to carry out air and artillery strikes on the facility suggests that hundreds more remain inside. Meanwhile, Russian officials have indicated that they intends to destroy the Azovstal steel factory and to turn that city into a resort town once the war is over.

The primary focus of the fighting in Ukraine remained along the eastern front in recent days. Here, Russian forces continued to struggle to make significantly territorial gains thanks to stiff Ukrainian resistance. It still appears that the target of the stalled northern and southern pincers of the Russian attack in the Donbas region remained the city of Sloviansk, but the closest Russian forces to that city were still at least 30km (18 miles) away.

While there have been suggestions that Russia is preparing for an eventual offensive in southwestern Ukraine, Russian forces have not carried out any major ground offensives in this region in recent weeks. Nevertheless, Russia has continued to carry out rocket attacks on the port city of Odesa and other targets in southwestern Ukraine, while attempting to provoke unrest in the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria, where around 1,500 Russian troops are stationed.

Key Developments

Russia’s Economy Grows: In the first quarter of this year, the Russian economy expanded by 3.5% on a year-on-year basis thanks to higher oil and gas prices. However, this is likely to be the last economic growth recorded in Russia for the foreseeable future as economic sanctions take effect.

Anger at Forced Mobilization: There are reports of widespread anger in the Russian-controlled areas of eastern Ukraine over the forced mobilization of young men in that region. This reflects the wider anger over the high number of casualties suffered by the Russians so far during this conflict.