Forecasting Europe’s Key Elections in 2017

Over the next few months, Europe will be the scene of three or four of 2017’s most important elections, each of which will have a major impact on the political and economic direction of that region.  These include next month’s parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, April’s presidential election in France, possible parliamentary elections in Italy and finally, September’s parliamentary elections in Germany.  The dominant theme in the run-up to these elections has been the rise of right-wing and left-wing populism in Europe, with parties and leaders on the far-right and the far-left of Europe’s political spectrum gaining support in recent years.  Now, with the shock election of Donald Trump as the president of the United States, and with Europe having suffered from years of economic troubles, the rising threat of terrorism and a massive migration crisis, there are concerns that support for more radical political parties will continue to rise as Europe’s key elections approach.  At stake in these election is the future of Europe’s economic and political integration, as increasingly, many European voters are blaming this integration for the region’s economic woes and rising security concerns.

The first major European country to go to the polls this year will be the Netherlands, where parliamentary elections will take place next month.  The current coalition government in the Netherlands consists of the center-right VVD party and the center-left Labor Party (PdvA).  However, both of these governing parties have lost support, particularly the Labor Party, which may lose more than two-thirds of its seats in the parliament.  Instead, the far-right Freedom Party (PVV), led by the outspoken Geert Wilders, is now the most popular party in the country by some margin and is likely to win the most seats in the parliament in March’s elections.  However, most other leading political parties are likely to refuse to form a coalition government with the PVV and, as a result, either a very loose coalition government will be cobbled together with a number of other parties, or, as has happened in many other European countries in recent years, no government will be able to be formed, forcing new elections to take place.  Regardless of what happens, the election result in the Netherlands is likely to serve as a bellwether for the other major elections taking place in Europe later in the year.

2017’s most interesting presidential election is taking place in April in France.  One reason why this election is so interesting is the fact that the incumbent president, Socialist Francois Hollande, has been such a failure as a head of state, highlighted by an approval rating that is the lowest of any leader in that country’s history.  Another reason why so many people are paying attention to this election is the fact that the front-runner is the candidate of the far-right Front National (FN), Marine Le Pen, who appears all but certain to finish in the top two in the first round of voting, thus qualifying for the run-off election between the top two vote-getters in the first round.  If she faces the main center-left candidate (Emmanuel Macron) or the leading center-right candidate (Francois Fillon), she is likely to lose the run-off election by a significant margin.  However, if the main left-wing candidate Benoit Hamon can secure the support of the former communists, led by Jean-Luc Melenchon, he might surge in the polls and qualify for the run-off election.  This would give Ms. Le Pen a realistic chance of winning this election, a development that would jeopardize the entire future of the European Union, given the fact that Ms. Le Pen and her party have taken a very hostile stance towards European integration.

Italy is not scheduled to hold its next parliamentary elections until 2018, but few observers expect Italy’s current government to hold on to power for the remainder of its term in office, with early elections likely to take place sometime later this year.  The current center-left government in Italy has been in power since the resignation of the reform-minded Prime Minister Matteo Renzi late last year after Italian voters rejected his proposed changes to the country’s political system in a highly-charged national referendum.  While the governing Democratic Party (PD) retains a slight lead in the polls, it has been the populist Five Star Movement (M5S) and its leader, former comedian Beppe Grlllo, that has had the most momentum in recent months, putting it in a position to win the next elections.  Moreover, right-wing parties such as the Lega Nord and Forza Italia are likely to combine to win a quarter of the vote, making it difficult for the center-left Democratic Party to form a new coalition government after these elections.  This holds the potential to cause political gridlock at a time when the Italian economy is jeopardized by the country’s fragile banking sector and a weak recovery from 15 years of economic stagnation.

In September, the most important European election of all will take place in Germany.  At present, Germany is governed by a grand coalition of its two largest political parties, the center-right CDU-CSU alliance and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), a government that is dominated by Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has been in power since 2005.  While Chancellor Merkel remains Germany’s most popular politician, support for her party has fallen significantly in the wake of 2015’s migration crisis.  In the meantime, the Social Democrats have seen a surge in support in recent weeks following the decision of the party to nominate former European Parliament President Martin Schulz as its candidate for chancellor.  Outside of the political center, the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the continued popularity for The Left (Die Linke) in eastern Germany means that between 20% and 25% of the seats in the parliament will go to fringe parties after these elections.  Should the Social Democrats decide not to be the junior party in a new grand coalition, political gridlock could ensue in Europe’s most powerful country.  Given the precarious economic, security and migration situation in Europe, this could have a major destabilizing effect on the entire region.  What is certain is that the future direction of Europe will be decided by the voters in these four countries over the next seven months.