Can Europe Defend its Borders?
The external security situation in Europe today is more dangerous at any time since the Second World War, and this includes the Cold War and the wars in the former Yugoslavia. To Europe’s east, Russia is becoming increasingly assertive and seeking to regain its dominance over the countries to its west. To the south, much the Middle East and North Africa has descended into chaos and conflict, destabilizing many of the countries around Europe’s southern and southeastern periphery.
This situation has become so dangerous for Europe not only because of developments outside of Europe, but also because of the significant decline in Europe’s political, defense and economic power in recent years. Moreover, hopes that an increasingly united Europe would offset the decline in power of its individual countries appear to be in serious jeopardy as the region finds itself deeply divided on many of the key challenges facing Europe today.
While Russia may not possess the vast power and influence that the Soviet Union did between the 1940s and the 1980s, it has become increasingly assertive in foreign affairs in recent years by attempting to bring back many countries to Moscow’s orbit and to re-establish Russian influence further abroad. These efforts in Europe have been bolstered by the instability and weakness of former member states of the Soviet Union such as Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus, each of which is being forced to choose between a Russian- and a European-oriented future. Furthermore, the gradual reduction of the United States’ military presence in Europe is leaving a major power vacuum in central and eastern Europe that Russia is attempting to fill.
While the US has reduced its armed forces’ presence in Europe, the defense capabilities of Europe’s leading powers have fallen dramatically in the 25 years since the end of the Cold War, leaving the West’s overall military power in Europe in a severely weakened state. As such, Russia has shown little fear of a potential European military response to its actions in Ukraine and to its military build-up in western Russia.
The situation along Europe’s southern and southeastern periphery is even more chaotic than the one to its east. Here, failed states have proliferated from Libya to Iraq and militant groups have established a strong presence in many areas of North Africa and the Middle East. As a result, there has been a surge of refugees, militants and arms northwards into Europe in recent years, taking advantage of the chaos in North Africa and the Middle East, as well as Europe’s inability to protect its own borders.
As we have seen, these flows of refugees, militants and arms are continuing to arrive in Europe, despite the closing of borders throughout southeastern Europe in recent months. Moreover, as the situation in North Africa and the Middle East is unlikely to improve in the near future, the potential for an even greater flow of refugees, militants and arms northwards into Europe is a major threat to the region’s future stability and security. This, in turn, could lead to a major destabilization of southern Europe and a sharp rise in the support for nationalist and isolationist political movements across Europe, a development that would once-and-for-all bring an end to the region’s efforts at integration.
What is happening in and around Europe is the creation of a power vacuum, with no central power able to bring stability and security to the region and its neighboring areas any longer. Throughout history, power vacuums have often led to major shifts in the balance of power as new or external powers seek to fill the void left by their predecessors. In Europe, the withdrawal of the United States from the region, and the declining political, economic and defense powers of European states is resulting in just such a power vacuum.
On one hand, it is not likely that the United States will dramatically restore its Cold War-era position in Europe, given that it is now focused on the Asia-Pacific region and the rise of China as a threat to its global leadership. In addition, Russia’s power remains relatively limited and it will only be able to threaten those countries in its near-abroad. In the meantime, European states will struggle to boost their abilities to defend Europe’s borders as decades of economic stagnation and defense spending reductions have dramatically lessened the hard power possessed by most European states. As such, Europe faces some difficult choices in the coming years as it attempts to deal with the myriad of threats that it faces all along its eastern and southern frontiers.