Isolated Turkey

Just a few years ago, Turkey undertook a major effort to improve its relations with its neighbors as well as with many of its more powerful international partners.  In fact, these efforts bore so much fruit in their early days that Turkey was taken as a model for how other countries in its region should conduct their foreign policies.  However, just a few years later, Turkey’s foreign policies have proven to have immensely damaged Turkey’s foreign relations in the Middle East and further abroad, leaving Turkey increasingly isolated in a very dangerous neighborhood.  During this time, Turkey has found itself outpaced by events all around it, including the Arab Spring, the civil war in Syria and Russia’s attempts to return to great power status.  Meanwhile, much of the blame for Turkey’s foreign policy woes goes to one man, Turkey’s increasingly autocratic president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Turkey’s most pressing foreign policy problems are found in its immediate neighborhood.  First and foremost, the Turkish government is increasingly concerned about the increasing autonomy of the Kurds of northern Iraq and Syria and the support being given to these Kurdish bastions by the United States and others.  In addition, Turkey’s role in Syria’s civil war has been marginal at best and now it finds itself on the sidelines as the United States, Russia and a host of other countries are playing a larger role along Turkey’s southern border.  Meanwhile, the recent surge in tensions in the South Caucasus region has drawn Turkey into a potential conflict involving its ally, Azerbaijan, and a long-time enemy, Armenia, while Russia seeks to prevent Turkey from increasing its influence in that region.  Finally, relations with Turkey’s other long-term neighborhood rival, Greece, have been soured by the ongoing refugee crisis that many in Europe blame on Turkey, even after the recent migration deal between the European Union and Turkey.

While much has been made with the dramatic deterioration in relations between Turkey and Russia, equally important has been the increasingly strained relations between Turkey and the West.  This is due in large part to President Erdogan’s unwillingness to seek better relations with the United States and Europe and to work together with the West on a number of key issues.  In fact, President Erdogan has moved Turkey away from the West in recent years, even as his country’s relations with other powers were also strained.  On one hand, the Turkish president’s constant criticism of the United States has resulted in many key decision makers in the US giving up on better relations with Ankara.  On the other, Turkey’s previous efforts to win membership in the European Union seem a long time ago, as both sides show little interest in having Turkey as an EU member state.  Moreover, the recent refugee crisis in the Aegean Sea further strained relations between Turkey and the EU, as Turkey sought, and gained, numerous concessions from the EU in return for stemming the flow of migrants and refugees to southeastern Europe.

Turkey’s newfound isolation is largely the result of President Erdogan and his policies towards Turkey’s neighbors and its most important foreign partners.  In fact, President Erdogan’s centralized control of Turkey foreign affairs are similar in scope to President Vladimir Putin’s control over all aspects of Russia’s foreign affairs, a worrying consideration in the wake of Russia’s aggressive actions in a host of areas in recent years.  For now, President Erdogan shows no signs of reversing course or making major changes to his foreign policies, despite Turkey’s worsening isolation.  However, given the volatile nature of Turkey’s near-abroad, it is likely that new crises will arise that will force President Erdogan to take difficult decisions and to attempt to rebuild relations with at least a few of Turkey’s international partners.  If he doesn’t, Turkey will find itself increasingly marginalized in both the Middle East and Europe and this will have major implications for Turkey’s security and its economic well-being.