The Islamic State's Global Threat

The rise of the radical Islamic State militant group in recent months has caught most countries by surprise, not the least Syria and Iraq where the Islamic State has made major territorial gains in recent months, despite the small number of actual fighters in its ranks. For now, the Islamic State appears focused on its efforts to build a so-called caliphate on the territory that it controls in Syria and Iraq, consolidating its hold on these territories and operating more or less as a functioning state. However, there are already signs that the Islamic State’s ambition is much greater, thus implicating not only the Middle East and Africa, but those countries involved in the region, most notably the United States.

Unlike jihadist groups that have come before, the Islamic State is clearly attempting to unilaterally create a hardline Sunni Muslim state on the territories that it has won by force in Syria and Iraq. While al-Qaeda literally means “the base”, the Islamic State is actually the group that it attempting to create a territorial base that can be used to later expand the group’s control beyond its current borders. In Syria and Iraq, it has used a combination of terror and state-building to consolidate its control over one-third of each of those countries. As such, it now has a base from which it can recruit fighters, raise funds and establish a stronghold at the heart of a highly unstable region.

In recent weeks, the Islamic State has launched a number of operations that indicate that its territorial ambitions in the Middle East are far from fulfilled. In Iraq, it has launched attacks on Shiite areas of central and southern Iraq, and, when repulsed in those regions, it turned its attentions to the Kurdish-controlled areas of northern Iraq. In Syria, the Islamic State militants have not only repelled attacks by rival rebel groups in that country, but have also expanded their presence in northern and western areas of that country outside of their stronghold in eastern Syria. Moreover, Islamic State militants, together with some of their allies, launched their first attack inside Lebanon earlier this month, raising fears that they will soon enter Lebanon in force, where they would most certainly come into conflict with Hezbollah’s Shiite militants.

For the United States, Europe and others, the most worrying development of recent weeks have been the signs that ties between the Islamic State and militant groups outside of the Middle East are on the rise. For example, Islamic militant groups operating in Libya, Mali and Nigeria have all indicated their support for the Islamic State, raising fears that these African-based groups could link with the Islamic State, much as earlier groups linked up with al-Qaeda. Meanwhile, the presence of non-Arab fighters among the Islamic State in Syria have raised fears that these fighters could eventually return to Russia (Chechnya), China (Xinjiang) or Europe (France and Belgium), where their passports would allow them to return with little fear of being stopped. Moreover, the United States’ airstrikes on Islamic State militants in northern Iraq have led to calls for attacks on the US by the Islamic State’s leadership. As such, the international community has been left with little choice but to commit to destroying the Islamic State before it can grow too entrenched in Syria and Iraq and spread its tentacles around the world.