ISA Coronavirus Update (29th of April)

Daily Summary

The number of new coronavirus (Covid-19) cases diagnosed around the world continued to rise at a steady pace of around 80,000 new cases per day.  This brought the total number of diagnosed cases to nearly 3.15 million.

After slowing in previous days, the number of worldwide fatalities linked to the coronavirus rose at a higher rate in recent days, with the total number of fatalities now surpassing 218,000.  Nevertheless, this number was well below many of the forecasted levels for this period that were made a few weeks ago.

The United States now accounts for more than 42% of all active diagnosed cases of the coronavirus in the world.  Fortunately, a relatively low fatality rate in the US means that the country accounts for just 27% of all worldwide deaths linked to the coronavirus.

The number of coronavirus cases in Russia reached 100,000, and the actual number of cases in that country is likely many times higher than the official figure would indicate.

There has been a surge in the number of deaths in the northern Nigerian state of Kano over the past week, although it is unclear if these deaths are the result of the coronavirus.  Nigeria has done very little testing for the coronavirus.

Key Developments

A Belgian Disaster: Belgium has stood out as a country that has been severely impacted by the crisis.  With 6.4 deaths per 10,000 people, Belgium has easily the highest per capita number of fatalities of any non-micro-country, and the number of deaths there continues to rise.

An Economic Disaster: With their economies forecast to both shrink by 9.8% in 2020, the Italian and Spanish economies will have both contracted over the 12-year period from 2009 to the end of 2020.  Italy’s economic output is forecast to fall to its its 1998 level this year.

Trend to Watch

The head of the 2020 Summer Olympics Games in Tokyo announced that if the games could not take place next summer as is now planned, they would have to be scrapped.  Many health experts have warned that plans to hold the games next year are unrealistic.

The Coming Days

Some of the anti-government protests that had come to a halt as a result of the coronavirus crisis in places such as Chile, Lebanon and Hong Kong could be heating up again as public anger grows and as some lockdown measures are eased.