The Pivotal Indian Ocean
Between the 16th and the 20th centuries, it was the Atlantic Ocean that proved to be the ocean with the greatest strategic value to the leading powers of the day. This century, power has clearly shifted to the Pacific Ocean, with the world’s leading power located on the eastern end of that massive body of water and its leading rival on the western end. However, it is the world’s other great ocean, the Indian Ocean, which could prove to be the pivotal body of water in the 21st century. Home to some of the world’s largest energy supplies, as well as some of its most important waterways, the Indian Ocean will see many of the world’s leading powers vying for control of strategic locations in and around the ocean in the coming years.
The Indian Ocean has long been neglected by many of the world’s leading powers, although the discovery of massive oil and gas reserves in the Persian (Arabian) Gulf in the 20th century led to a larger focus on the region by the world’s leading naval powers, first Great Britain and then the United States. It is these oil and gas reserves that continue to result in the presence of large naval forces in the Indian Ocean today. First and foremost, the United States has a massive naval presence in the ocean, particularly in and around the Gulf. Now, China is seeking to expand its naval footprint in the region through the establishment of a series of ports and naval bases along the key shipping routes for Gulf oil to East Asia. Moreover, India, the Indian Ocean’s leading local power, is also expanding its naval capabilities and will play a pivotal role in maintaining the security of the Indian Ocean’s shipping lanes in the future.
While the United States has the dominant naval and air presence in the Indian Ocean at present, the fact that the US is becoming less dependent on oil supplies from the Persian (Arabian) Gulf means that the US could eventual reduce its presence in the Indian Ocean in favor of a greater presence in the Pacific Ocean. On the other hand, the US will certainly not want to cede its dominant military position in the Indian Ocean to China, which is keen to expand its blue water naval capabilities in order to safeguard China’s oil supplies from the Gulf. As China grows more dependent upon supplies of oil and gas from the Gulf, it will become increasingly opposed to the fact that its shipping lanes are protected by the US Navy and will be fearful that the US could close off these shipping lanes in the event of a conflict between the two countries. As such, China is certain to seek new ways of expanding its naval presence in the Indian Ocean in the coming years and will seek to work with countries such as Pakistan to achieve this goal. This, in turn, could lead to a major naval rivalry between China and India in the Indian Ocean.
While the US-Chinese military rivalry will be the key issue facing the Indian Ocean region in the coming decades, a number of other security issues will also warrant attention. First, India’s growing military capabilities will give it a greater role in protecting shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean and will allow India to have much more influence over the region in the coming years, but this will not be welcomed by rivals such as China and Pakistan. Second, the Persian (Arabian) Gulf will continue to be one of the hottest flashpoints in the world, particularly as tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran grow. Third, failed states along the Indian Ocean coastline such as Somalia and Yemen could lead to a resurgence of piracy in the waters of the Indian Ocean and could result in foreign powers becoming more involved in the conflicts in those countries. Altogether, the Indian Ocean is clearly on the radar of the world’s leading powers and with the security and economic stakes in the region being so high, an even greater focus will be made on this vital body of water in the years ahead.