Poland's Geopolitical Importance
Being located between two large powers (Russia and Germany) and having no real natural barriers to either power has resulted in Poland having one of the most turbulent histories of any country in the world. More often than not, Poland was also much weaker than either of these powers, leaving the country’s security and independence at the mercy of its larger neighbors. As a result, Poland was, more often than not, under the control of its larger neighbors, with its territory partitioned by them for much of Poland’s history. However, the fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989 presented Poland with a new chance to be an independent actor in Europe, and, to the surprise of many, it has flourished in the 25 years since Russia’s control of Central and Eastern Europe was relinquished. Today, Poland has emerged as a leading European power, despite its less-than-advantageous position between Russia and Germany, although it will need to continue to make smart strategic decisions to maintain its freedom of action in the future.
Many people are surprised to learn that, until the mid-18th century, Poland was one of Europe’s leading powers, controlling a vast territory stretching from the Baltic Sea in the north to well into southern Ukraine. However, internal weaknesses and the emergence of Russia and Prussia as great powers put an end to Polish independence in the 18th century. In fact, Poland was only truly independent for about 20 out of the 200 years between the late 18th and late 20th centuries, being under the yoke of Russia, Prussia (Germany) or a combination of the two (with southern Poland under Austrian control between 1772 and 1918). Unfortunately for Poland, it was located between the two European states (Russia and Germany/Prussia) that gained considerable power during this period, and for either of these states to expand their territory in Europe, they had to look to Polish lands to do so. As a result, Poland experienced one of the most turbulent and disruptive histories of any European country in the 18th, 19th and 20th centuries.
When Poland emerged from under the Russian yoke in the late 1980s, it was a country that was no richer than Ukraine and significantly poorer than Central European countries such as Hungary or the former Czechoslovakia. However, in the years following the collapse of Communism, Poland underwent economic shock therapy, a development that initially caused great hardship in Poland, but eventually resulted in Poland developing the region’s strongest economy. This was due to the fact that this shock therapy killed off many of the weaker companies and financial institutions in Poland, leaving the country’s manufacturing and financial sectors much better prepared to deal with the economic disruptions of the past decade. Moreover, Poland’s internal market is the largest in Central Europe and strong increases in domestic demand have buffered Poland from the worst effects of Europe’s recent economic crisis. In fact, Poland is the only economy in Europe not to have fallen into a recession during the past seven years of economic turmoil in Europe. Not only has Poland outperformed all other European economies in recent years, but it has also outperformed many other large emerging markets, including Russia, Brazil and Mexico.
On the security front, Poland’s position has been greatly strengthened by its membership in NATO and the European Union. As a NATO member, it now enjoys the military support of the United States and its European allies, a massive deterrent to any Russian ambitions in Poland. Furthermore, despite the historical baggage between the two countries, Poland and Germany have developed a close relationship in recent years, due in no small part to the strong relationship between the center-right governments in place in both countries. Nevertheless, changes in government in either country could jeopardize this relationship, as Germany’s more leftist parties favor closer ties with Russia, whereas Poland’s conservatives harbor deep suspicions of Germany. Another risk is the gradual dis-engagement of the United States from Europe; a development that would take away Poland’s one security guarantee that can discourage foreign adventurism in Poland. As a result, Poland must maintain strong ties with both the United States and Germany in order to guarantee its future security and to allow its ongoing economic expansion to continue. If it can do this, Poland will have the brightest future of any country in Central Europe, something that few predicted when Communism fell in the late 1980s.