The Fascinating Presidential Election in the United States

Due to the fact that the United States remains the world’s leading economic and military power, the elections for its top officials attract the attention of the world.  Add to that the fact that US presidential elections are the longest, most expensive and most exciting elections in the world, it is little surprise that the entire world is closely following the long and convoluted presidential election process in the United States.  This year’s presidential election in the US is shaping up to be one of the most interesting elections in US history, due in large part to the race for the Republican Party’s nomination.  However, there are a number of other developments that could take place between now and November’s election that could dramatically alter the shape of the race.

On the Democratic Party’s side of the race, few expected former Secretary of State (and First Lady) Hillary Clinton to face much opposition as she sought to win the party’s nomination this year, especially in the wake of her shock defeat at the hands of Barack Obama back in 2008.  Just a few months ago, her path to the Democratic nomination seemed clear, as she faced no well-known opponents within her party.  However, she now finds herself being threatened from the left wing of the party in the form of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who is now threatening to win the party’s first caucus in Iowa and its first primary in New Hampshire.  While Ms. Clinton remains the overwhelming favorite to win the Democratic nomination (even if she loses to Senator Sanders in Iowa and New Hampshire), she may emerge weakened from a prolonged contest and this could boost Republican prospects in November.  Moreover, a weakened Clinton campaign could even lead to the entry into the race of a third-party candidate that could harm the Democrats chance at victory, most notably former New York City Michael Bloomberg, who recently announced that he was considering entering the race for the presidency.

While the race for the Democratic Party’s nomination has developed into a surprisingly competitive contest, it is the race of the Republican Party’s nomination that is dominating the headlines around the world.  Going into this election, the conventional wisdom was that populists like Donald Trump would attract much of the early attention, but eventually a more centrist candidate (then assumed to be Jeb Bush) would emerge as the party’s nominee thanks to the backing of the party hierarchy and its financial backers.  However, an amazing dynamic has emerged.  As it stands, there are three main categories of Republican voters (populists, social conservatives and moderates).  While nearly all recent Republican nominees have come from the moderate wing of the party, this time around, the race for the leadership of the moderate wing remains wide open, with four potential candidates (Rubio, Bush, Christie and Kasich) battling for this segment of voters.  Meanwhile, the powerful social conservative wing of the party has moved en masse behind Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who is despised by much of the party’s leadership.  All of this has played into the hands of the surprising front-runner for the nomination, Donald Trump, who has not only taken over the populist wing of the party, but has gained the support of a wide range of disgruntled Republican voters.  In fact, some Republican leaders appear to be resigning themselves to the fact that Mr. Trump stands a real chance of winning the party’s nomination.

As primary season approaches, there is more uncertainty within both major parties than at any time in recent memory.  Among Republicans, it has been assumed that, should a populist or conservative candidate (such as Trump or Cruz) win the party’s nomination, the party would be faced with a certain defeat in November’s presidential election.  However, recent polls have suggested that Ms. Clinton’s support is waning and her lead in over Republicans such as Mr. Trump and Mr. Cruz Is much smaller than expected.  Moreover, she polls rather poorly against more centrist Republican candidates, suggesting that the Republicans can win in 2016 if they can just settle on a centrist candidate.  Even more surprising, Senator Sanders polls surprisingly well against the most likely Republican candidates, a development that is damaging Ms. Clinton’s claim that the Vermont senator is unelectable.  What is certain is that there will be a number of new developments that will change the face of this race for the US presidency in the coming months.  In fact, we may not know who all of the candidates are for the presidency until the latter part of this summer, making for a fascinating and unpredictable presidential election.